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[Translated] 20180203 Open source software 20 years and counting

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##Name1e5s Translating##
Open source software: 20 years and counting
============================================================
### On the 20th anniversary of the coining of the term "open source software," how did it rise to dominance and what's next?
![Open source software: 20 years and counting](https://opensource.com/sites/default/files/styles/image-full-size/public/lead-images/2cents.png?itok=XlT7kFNY "Open source software: 20 years and counting")
Image by : opensource.com
Twenty years ago, in February 1998, the term "open source" was first applied to software. Soon afterwards, the Open Source Definition was created and the seeds that became the Open Source Initiative (OSI) were sown. As the OSD’s author [Bruce Perens relates][9],
> “Open source” is the proper name of a campaign to promote the pre-existing concept of free software to business, and to certify licenses to a rule set.
Twenty years later, that campaign has proven wildly successful, beyond the imagination of anyone involved at the time. Today open source software is literally everywhere. It is the foundation for the internet and the web. It powers the computers and mobile devices we all use, as well as the networks they connect to. Without it, cloud computing and the nascent Internet of Things would be impossible to scale and perhaps to create. It has enabled new ways of doing business to be tested and proven, allowing giant corporations like Google and Facebook to start from the top of a mountain others already climbed.
Like any human creation, it has a dark side as well. It has also unlocked dystopian possibilities for surveillance and the inevitably consequent authoritarian control. It has provided criminals with new ways to cheat their victims and unleashed the darkness of bullying delivered anonymously and at scale. It allows destructive fanatics to organize in secret without the inconvenience of meeting. All of these are shadows cast by useful capabilities, just as every human tool throughout history has been used both to feed and care and to harm and control. We need to help the upcoming generation strive for irreproachable innovation. As [Richard Feynman said][10],
> To every man is given the key to the gates of heaven. The same key opens the gates of hell.
As open source has matured, the way it is discussed and understood has also matured. The first decade was one of advocacy and controversy, while the second was marked by adoption and adaptation.
1. In the first decade, the key question concerned business models—“how can I contribute freely yet still be paid?”—while during the second, more people asked about governance—“how can I participate yet keep control/not be controlled?”
2. Open source projects of the first decade were predominantly replacements for off-the-shelf products; in the second decade, they were increasingly components of larger solutions.
3. Projects of the first decade were often run by informal groups of individuals; in the second decade, they were frequently run by charities created on a project-by-project basis.
4. Open source developers of the first decade were frequently devoted to a single project and often worked in their spare time. In the second decade, they were increasingly employed to work on a specific technology—professional specialists.
5. While open source was always intended as a way to promote software freedom, during the first decade, conflict arose with those preferring the term “free software.” In the second decade, this conflict was largely ignored as open source adoption accelerated.
So what will the third decade bring?
1. _The complexity business model_ —The predominant business model will involve monetizing the solution of the complexity arising from the integration of many open source parts, especially from deployment and scaling. Governance needs will reflect this.
2. _Open source mosaics_ —Open source projects will be predominantly families of component parts, together with being built into stacks of components. The resultant larger solutions will be a mosaic of open source parts.
3. _Families of projects_ —More and more projects will be hosted by consortia/trade associations like the Linux Foundation and OpenStack, and by general-purpose charities like Apache and the Software Freedom Conservancy.
4. _Professional generalists_ —Open source developers will increasingly be employed to integrate many technologies into complex solutions and will contribute to a range of projects.
5. _Software freedom redux_ —As new problems arise, software freedom (the application of the Four Freedoms to user and developer flexibility) will increasingly be applied to identify solutions that work for collaborative communities and independent deployers.
I’ll be expounding on all this in conference keynotes around the world during 2018\. Watch for [OSI’s 20th Anniversary World Tour][11]!
_This article was originally published on [Meshed Insights Ltd.][2] and is reprinted with permission. This article, as well as my work at OSI, is supported by [Patreon patrons][3]._
### About the author
[![Simon Phipps (smiling)](https://opensource.com/sites/default/files/styles/profile_pictures/public/pictures/picture-2305.jpg?itok=CefW_OYh)][12] Simon Phipps - Computer industry and open source veteran Simon Phipps started [Public Software][4], a European host for open source projects, and volunteers as President at OSI and a director at The Document Foundation. His posts are sponsored by [Patreon patrons][5] - become one if you'd like to see more! Over a 30+ year career he has been involved at a strategic level in some of the world’s leading... [more about Simon Phipps][6][More about me][7]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
via: https://opensource.com/article/18/2/open-source-20-years-and-counting
作者：[Simon Phipps ][a]
译者：[译者ID](https://github.com/译者ID)
校对：[校对者ID](https://github.com/校对者ID)
本文由 [LCTT](https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject) 原创编译，[Linux中国](https://linux.cn/) 荣誉推出
[a]:https://opensource.com/users/simonphipps
[1]:https://opensource.com/article/18/2/open-source-20-years-and-counting?rate=TZxa8jxR6VBcYukor0FDsTH38HxUrr7Mt8QRcn0sC2I
[2]:https://meshedinsights.com/2017/12/21/20-years-and-counting/
[3]:https://patreon.com/webmink
[4]:https://publicsoftware.eu/
[5]:https://patreon.com/webmink
[6]:https://opensource.com/users/simonphipps
[7]:https://opensource.com/users/simonphipps
[8]:https://opensource.com/user/12532/feed
[9]:https://perens.com/2017/09/26/on-usage-of-the-phrase-open-source/
[10]:https://www.brainpickings.org/2013/07/19/richard-feynman-science-morality-poem/
[11]:https://opensource.org/node/905
[12]:https://opensource.com/users/simonphipps
[13]:https://opensource.com/users/simonphipps
[14]:https://opensource.com/users/simonphipps

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开源软件二十年 —— 过去，现在，未来
=================================================================
### 谨以此文纪念 “开源软件” 这个词的二十年纪念日，开源软件是怎么占有软件的主导地位的 ？以后会如何发展?
![Open source software: 20 years and counting](https://opensource.com/sites/default/files/styles/image-full-size/public/lead-images/2cents.png?itok=XlT7kFNY "Open source software: 20 years and counting")
图片来自 : opensource.com
二十年以前，在 1998 年二月，“开源” 这个词汇第一次出现在软件之前。不久之后，如”开源的定义“（OSD）的作者 [Bruce Perens 所说][9], OSD 这一文档被创建，开放源代码促进会（ OSI ）的种子被播种。
> “开源”是宣传自由软件的既有概念到商业软件，并对使用一系列规则对许可证进行认证的活动的正式名称。
二十年后，我们能看到这一运动是非常成功的，甚至超出了当时参与这一活动的任何人的想象。 如今，开源软件无处不在。它是互联网和网络的基础。它为我们所有使用的电脑和移动设备，以及它们所连接的网络提供动力。没有它，云计算和新兴的物联网将不可能发展，甚至不可能出现。它使新的业务方式能被测试和验证，还可以让像谷歌和 Facebook 这样的大公司使用别人的成果继续发展。
如任何人类的创造物一样，它也有黑暗的一面。它也让反乌托邦的监视和必然导致的专制控制的出现成为了可能。它为犯罪分子提供欺骗受害者的新的途径，还让匿名且大规模的欺凌得以存在。它让有破环性的狂热分子可以暗中组织而不会感到有何不便。这些都是开源的能力之下的黑暗投影。所有的人类工具都是如此，既可以养育人类，亦可以有害于人类。我们需要帮助下一代，让他们能争取无可取代的创新。就如 [费曼所说][10]，
> 每个人都掌握着一把开启天堂之门的钥匙，但这把钥匙亦能打开地狱之门。
开源运动已经渐渐成熟。我们讨论和理解它的方式也渐渐的成熟。如果说第一个十年拥护与非议对立的十年，那么第二个十年就是接纳和适应并存的十年。
1. 在第一个十年里面，关键问题就是商业模型 - “我怎样才能自由的贡献代码，且从中受益？” - 之后，还有更多的人提出了有关管理的难题- “我怎么才能参与进来，且不受控制 ?”
2. 第一个十年的开源项目主要是替代现有的产品; 在第二个十年中，它们更多地是作为更大的解决方案的组成部分。
3. 第一个十年的项目往往由非正式的个人组织进行; 在第二个十年中，它们经常由逐个项目地创建的机构经营。
4. 第一个十年的开源开发人员经常是投入于单一的项目，并经常在业余时间工作。 在第二个十年里，他们越来越多地受雇于一个专门的技术 —— 他们成了专业人员。
5. 尽管开源一直被认为是提升软件自由度的一种方式，但在第一个十年中，这个运动与那些更喜欢使用“自由软件”的人产生了冲突。在第二个十年里，随着开源运动的加速发展，这个冲突基本上被忽略了。
第三个十年会带来什么？
1. _更复杂的商业模式_ - 主要的商业模式将通过整合很多开源的，特别是部署和扩展，那部分的开源软件，从而产生的复杂的解决方案。 管理的需求将反映这一点。
2. _开源拼图_ - 开源项目将主要是一堆组件。 由此产生的解决方案将是开源组建的拼图。
3. _项目族_ - 越来越多的项目将由诸如 Linux Foundation 和 OpenStack 等联盟/行业协会以及 Apache 和 Software Freedom Conservancy 等机构主办。
4. _专业通才_ - 开源开发人员将越来越多地被雇来将诸多技术集成到复杂的解决方案里，这将有助于一系列的项目的开发。
5. _软件自由度降低_ - 随着新问题的出现，软件自由（将四项自由应用于用户和开发人员之间的灵活性）将越来越多地应用于识别适用于协作社区和独立部署人员的解决方案。
2018年，我将在全球各地的主题演讲中阐述这些内容。欢迎观看 [OSI 20周年纪念全球巡演][11]！
_本文最初发表于 [Meshed Insights Ltd.][2] ， 已获转载授权，本文，以及我在 OSI 的工作，由 [Patreon patrons][3] 支持_
### 关于作者
[![Simon Phipps (smiling)](https://opensource.com/sites/default/files/styles/profile_pictures/public/pictures/picture-2305.jpg?itok=CefW_OYh)][12] Simon Phipps - 计算机工业和开源软件专家Simon Phipps创办了[公共软件公司][4]，一个欧洲开源项目主管，志愿成为 OSI 的总裁，还是The Document Foundation的一名主管。 他的作品是由 [Patreon patrons][5] 赞助 - 如果你想看更多的话，来做赞助人吧！ 在超过30年的职业生涯中，他一直在参与世界领先的战略层面的开发...[关于 Simon Phipps][6][关于我][7]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
via: https://opensource.com/article/18/2/open-source-20-years-and-counting
作者：[Simon Phipps ][a]
译者：[name1e5s](https://github.com/name1e5s)
校对：[校对者ID](https://github.com/校对者ID)
本文由 [LCTT](https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject) 原创编译，[Linux中国](https://linux.cn/) 荣誉推出
[a]:https://opensource.com/users/simonphipps
[1]:https://opensource.com/article/18/2/open-source-20-years-and-counting?rate=TZxa8jxR6VBcYukor0FDsTH38HxUrr7Mt8QRcn0sC2I
[2]:https://meshedinsights.com/2017/12/21/20-years-and-counting/
[3]:https://patreon.com/webmink
[4]:https://publicsoftware.eu/
[5]:https://patreon.com/webmink
[6]:https://opensource.com/users/simonphipps
[7]:https://opensource.com/users/simonphipps
[8]:https://opensource.com/user/12532/feed
[9]:https://perens.com/2017/09/26/on-usage-of-the-phrase-open-source/
[10]:https://www.brainpickings.org/2013/07/19/richard-feynman-science-morality-poem/
[11]:https://opensource.org/node/905
[12]:https://opensource.com/users/simonphipps
[13]:https://opensource.com/users/simonphipps
[14]:https://opensource.com/users/simonphipps