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[#]: collector: (lujun9972)
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[#]: translator: (CanYellow)
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[#]: reviewer: ( )
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[#]: subject: (How open principles will impact the future of work)
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[#]: via: (https://opensource.com/open-organization/21/1/open-is-future-of-work)
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[#]: author: (Ron McFarland https://opensource.com/users/ron-mcfarland)
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How open principles will impact the future of work
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======
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In many ways, the nature of our work defines us. So how do we prepare
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for a future when the nature of work will change dramatically?
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![Working on a team, busy worklife][1]
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If we define "work" as any contribution that receives any kind of reward, then work is—and always has been—one of the major factors that define who we are. It is a major aspect of our lives. Throughout our work (whatever that may be for us), we meet friends, identify sources of intellectual stimulation and emotional fulfillment, grow, and feel at our most creative and innovative. To our families, friends, communities and societies, work is extremely important. We should not take work—or its role in our lives—lightly or for granted.
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So if the [nature of work is going to change][2] in the future, it might mean that something key to our very sense of _self_ is going to change. And we should plan for those changes very seriously.
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Consider the transformation of work throughout the Industrial Revolution (between the 1700s and 1800s). It drove many people from rural farm work into factories in the cities, fundamentally altering their lifestyles. It required new, more specialized skills (rather than the kind of artisanship common in rural economies). As we examine our own personal work environments in the decades to come, we'll see a potential reversal of the trends we saw during the Industrial era: from hierarchy and interchangeable general skills and activities to the reinstatement of horizontal collaboration and more specialized mastery (back to artisanship).
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This time, though, these changes come on a global scale rather than a local one, and the speed of change is far more accelerated.
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And in this new work environment, [open organization principles][3] will play a vital role.
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In this series, I'll review [_The Shift_, a book by Professor Lynda Gratton][4]—a book that, while written in 2014 from data assembled in 2010, still rings true today (and will in the future, too). In this book, Gratton projects how work will change around 2025 and 2050. This is vital information, as it will help us make sound choices when preparing for and developing our careers moving forward.
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Gratton explains predominant forces influencing the future of work in this timeframe. In this article series, I'll summarize them—and explain how open organization principles are involved in each.
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### Five factors influencing the future of work
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Driving the Industrial Revolution were inventions that used coal and steam power. Today, [Gratton][5] says, five subtle forces are causing a similar "shift":
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1. increased global activities
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2. rapid advances in technology
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3. human longevity and demographics
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4. societal and family structural changes
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5. the need for a low-carbon economy
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In short: Computers will become faster. Materials will become stronger. Medicines will cure more diseases allowing longer human life. To varying degrees, these will all impact on how we work in the future. Here are a few notes on each.
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#### 1\. Globalization
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In a previous article, "[Globalization: A history of openness][6]," I discussed multiple forces and factors related to globalization, one of them being trade. Between 1950 and 2010 the volume of global trade has increased by 60 times, while at the same time transportation costs have fallen. And at the same time, developing countries are seeing not only increased trade but new innovations. I also discussed globalization in early history as part of my article "[Open organizations through the ages][7]." And I explored the importance of global governance—both now and into the future—in my article ["What would a global open organization look like?"][8] According to Gratton, globalization will have an undeniable and unavoidable impact on the future work.
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If the nature of work is going to change in the future, it might mean that something key to our very sense of self is going to change. And we should plan for those changes very seriously.
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#### 2\. Technology
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The cost of computing has been coming down at an alarming rate. And it will continue to decrease. This will help connect billions of people that have been mostly left out of the greater global economy until now. They will start to both enter the workforce and become more influential consumers. At the same time, computers and advanced automation [will replace jobs performed by humans][9] in the future. This all will influence work shifts in the future.
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#### 3\. Demographics and longevity
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Gratton also notes the impacts that various generations will have on the future of work, particularly in the United States. Younger generations will play a major role in the future, as their attitudes are different from earlier generations. Moreover, birth rates in various global regions will have an impact on prosperity. There will be more migration, as some regions' populations will decline while others increase. They will move to what Professor Gratton calls "creative clusters." And finally, Gratton argues, the life expectancy globally will change. By 2025, 10% of the world's population will be over the age of 65. These people will more than likely want to continue to work for sustained income, continued mental stimulation, physical activity, connection to others, and a source of meaning and purpose in their lives. Also, consider that many children today will more than likely live longer than 100 years. If they retired at 65 years old, they would have 35 years to do very little. With that thought in mind, having several career changes and being active in volunteer and community service programs in the future will expand greatly.
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#### 4\. Society
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In addition to the generational changes, Gratton notes several important social changes, too. There will be changing roles of women in the workplace, she says. People will have more choices to form the life they want than ever before. And with increased productivity per person, there will be more average free time available than ever before, she writes.
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#### 5\. Energy resources
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I've talked about the expansion of resource-saving industries in a presentation I've given on "[The Resource Industrial Revolution][10]." Gratton adds valuable points to this conversation. Climate change, she notes, will gradually become a major issue, which will reduce transportation and consumption. In particular, global water supply will not be able to keep pace with demand. Water desalination projects will expand greatly (possibly powered by [Generation IV][11] distributed small modular nuclear power plants (SMR's) now being developed). Environmental catastrophes will displace people and migration will create displaced communities throughout the globe. More energy-efficient ways of living will be discovered and introduced. This will influence future jobs.
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### Preparing for the future
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These five forces will prompt fundamental changes to the way we work in the future, Gratton argues. But we need to begin preparing for that future now. In the next article of this series, I'll explain Gratton's outlook and a few scenarios for grappling with a rapidly changing future. How could a person look at those changes as career opportunities? On the other hand, what would happen if a person simply _ignored_ those changes to come? I'll review Gratton's thoughts on those questions. Also, I'll also explain how open principles can form the heart of necessary changes.
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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via: https://opensource.com/open-organization/21/1/open-is-future-of-work
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作者：[Ron McFarland][a]
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选题：[lujun9972][b]
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译者：[译者ID](https://github.com/译者ID)
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校对：[校对者ID](https://github.com/校对者ID)
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本文由 [LCTT](https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject) 原创编译，[Linux中国](https://linux.cn/) 荣誉推出
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[a]: https://opensource.com/users/ron-mcfarland
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[b]: https://github.com/lujun9972
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[1]: https://opensource.com/sites/default/files/styles/image-full-size/public/lead-images/team_dev_email_chat_video_work_wfm_desk_520.png?itok=6YtME4Hj (Working on a team, busy worklife)
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[2]: https://opensource.com/open-organization/18/7/transformation-beyond-digital-2
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[3]: https://theopenorganization.org/definition/
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[4]: http://lyndagratton.com/books/the-shift/
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[5]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynda_Gratton
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[6]: https://opensource.com/open-organization/20/7/globalization-history-open
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[7]: https://opensource.com/open-organization/20/8/global-history-collaboration
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[8]: https://opensource.com/open-organization/20/9/global-open-organization
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[9]: https://opensource.com/open-organization/19/9/claiming-human-age-of-AI
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[10]: https://www.slideshare.net/RonMcFarland1/the-starting-of-the-third-industrial-revolution
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[11]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_IV_reactor
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[#]: collector: (lujun9972)
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[#]: translator: (CanYellow)
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[#]: reviewer: ( )
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[#]: publisher: ( )
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[#]: url: ( )
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[#]: subject: (How open principles will impact the future of work)
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[#]: via: (https://opensource.com/open-organization/21/1/open-is-future-of-work)
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[#]: author: (Ron McFarland https://opensource.com/users/ron-mcfarland)
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开放原则将如何影响未来工作
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======
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我们的工作性质在很多方面塑造了我们自己。未来工作的性质将发生巨大变化，我们又该做何准备呢？
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![团队合作，忙碌的工作生活][1]
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如果我们将“工作”定位为获得某种回报的任何形式的付出，那么工作是并且一直是决定我们是谁的主要因素之一。工作是我们生活的一个重要方面。在工作中(不论这对我们意味着什么)，我们结识朋友，我们获得智力激励和情感满足的源泉，我们得到成长，我们感受自身无穷的创造性。对于我们的家人、朋友、社区和社会而言，工作极其重要，我们不应轻视工作的重要性亦或视其为理所当然。
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因此如果未来[工作的性质将发生变化][2]，这可能意味着恰恰是我们 _自我认知_ 中的某些关键要素将发生变化。我们应该认真准备应对这些转变。
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考察自第一次工业革命(18、19世纪)以来的工作转变，很多人从从事农业劳动转为进入城市工厂工作，这从根本上改变了他们的生活方式。新的工作方式需要全新的更专业的工作技能而不再是农村经济中常见的手艺。接下来的几十年里，当我们检视我们的个人工作环境时，我们可能会发现工业时代以来的这一趋势可能发生逆转：从层级制度、可代替的通用技术与活动重新转变为横向协作与对专业知识的熟练掌握的更高要求(回到手工艺时代)。
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这个时代与这些转变的到来将是全球性的而非区域性的，转变的速度已经大大加快了。
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在这一新的工作环境中，[开放组织原则][3]将扮演关键性的角色。
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本系列中，我将回顾 [Lynda Gratton 教授的作品，_转变_][4] (中译本：转变：未来社会工作岗位需求变化及应对策略，ISBN:9787121152894)，本书成书于2014年(译注，本书原版有 [2011版][T1] 与 [2014版][T2] )，书中数据于2010年收集，但今天仍然适用(将来也一样)。本书中，Gratton教授指出了工作将在2025到2050年间如何变化。这是关键信息，因为它有助于我们在准备和发展我们的职业生涯时作出正确的选择。
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Gratton教授阐释了在上述时间段内影响未来工作的主要因素。本系列中，我们将对它们做一个总结并解释开放组织原则如何融入它们之中。
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### 影响未来工作的五个因素
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煤碳与蒸汽动力的发明推动了第一次工业革命。[Gratton教授][5]说，今天五种微妙的力量导致了类似的转变：
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1. 日益增长的全球化活动
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2. 技术的快速进步
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3. 人类寿命与人口数量
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4. 社会与家庭结构变化
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5. 低碳经济的需求
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简而言之，计算机更快了，材料更强了，药物能治疗更多的疾病使得人类的寿命更长。这些都在不同程度上影响了我们未来的工作方式。以下针对上述每一点的一些笔记。
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#### 1\. 全球化
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在以前的文章 [《全球化：开放的历史》][6] 中，我讨论了全球化的多种动力与影响因素，其中之一就是贸易。从1950年到2010年的60年间，全球贸易的体量增加了60倍，与此同时运输成本降低了，发展中国家不仅看到了贸易增长，而且看到了新的创新。我还在我的另一篇文章 [《历史变迁中的开放组织》][7]中讨论了历史早期的全球化。我另外在我的文章[《全球性的开放组织是怎么样的》][8]中探讨了从现在到未来全球治理的重要性。如Gratton教授所言，全球化在未来工作中将发挥不可否认与不可避免的影响。
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如果未来工作的性质将发生变化，这可能意味着恰恰是我们自我认知中的某些关键要素将发生变化。我们应该认真准备应对这些转变。
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#### 2\. 技术
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计算成本一直在以惊人的速度下降，它还将继续下降。这有助于连接到目前为止仍然大部分被隔离在更大的全球经济之外的数十亿人。他们将开始进入劳动力市场并成为更有影响力的消费者。与此同时，计算机与高级自动化在未来将[取代人类工作][9]，这都将影响未来的工作转变。
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#### 3\.人口数量与寿命
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Gratton教授还记录了不同世代的人对未来工作的影响，尤其是在美国。年轻一代在未来将扮演主要角色，他们的态度将不同于上一代。此外，全球不同地区的出生率将影响经济繁荣。由于一些地区的人口降低而另一些的将会增加，将会出现更多的移民。他们将移民至Gratton教授谓之“创新集群”的地方。最后，Gratton教授认为全球预期寿命将会变化。截至2025年，世界人口的10%都将超过65岁，这些人口将更可能希望继续工作，为了得到持续的收入、精神刺激、身体活动，与他人的联系以及生活的意义与目的的源泉。考虑到今天的很多儿童都更可能拥有超过100岁的寿命，如果他们在65岁退休，他们余下的至少35年里将做不了太多事情。基于这样的考虑，在未来职业道路的多次转换以及在社区与志愿服务项目中的积极参与将会大大拓展。
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#### 4\. 社会
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常规的变化之外，Gratton教授还描述了一些社会变化。她说，未来女性在工作上的角色将会变化，人们将比以往拥有更多的选择来塑造他们希望的生活；随着个人劳动生产率的提升，平均空闲时间将比以往更多。
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#### 5\. 能源
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我在[资源工业革命][10]上的一篇演讲中讨论了资源节约型工业的扩张。格拉特教授为该对话补充一些有价值的观点。她认为气候变化将逐渐成为主要议题，并导致运输与消费的降低。尤其是世界范围内的水资源供给将无法跟上用水需求。海水淡化项目将大幅扩张(可能由正在开发的[第四代][11]分布式小型模块化核电站提供动力)。环境灾难将使人们背井离乡，并在世界范围内形成移民社区。更多能效高的生活方式将会被发现和引入，这将影响未来工作。
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### 为未来提前准备
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上述五种力量将推动未来工作方式发生根本性的改变，Gratton教授认为我们现在就需要开始为这样的未来提前做准备。本系列的下一篇文章中，我将介绍Gratton教授对未来的展望以及应对快速变化的未来的一些情境。个人如何将这些变化视作职业机会？另一方面，如果简单地选择对即将到来的变化 _视而不见_ 又会发生什么？我将回顾Gratton教授在这些问题上的思考。同样的，我也将解释开放原则如何形成必经的变革的核心。
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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via: https://opensource.com/open-organization/21/1/open-is-future-of-work
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作者：[Ron McFarland][a]
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选题：[lujun9972][b]
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译者：[CanYellow](https://github.com/CanYellow)
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校对：[校对者ID](https://github.com/校对者ID)
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本文由 [LCTT](https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject) 原创编译，[Linux中国](https://linux.cn/) 荣誉推出
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[a]: https://opensource.com/users/ron-mcfarland
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[b]: https://github.com/lujun9972
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[1]: https://opensource.com/sites/default/files/styles/image-full-size/public/lead-images/team_dev_email_chat_video_work_wfm_desk_520.png?itok=6YtME4Hj (Working on a team, busy worklife)
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[2]: https://opensource.com/open-organization/18/7/transformation-beyond-digital-2
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[3]: https://theopenorganization.org/definition/
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[4]: http://lyndagratton.com/books/the-shift/
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[5]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynda_Gratton
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[6]: https://opensource.com/open-organization/20/7/globalization-history-open
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[7]: https://opensource.com/open-organization/20/8/global-history-collaboration
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[8]: https://opensource.com/open-organization/20/9/global-open-organization
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[9]: https://opensource.com/open-organization/19/9/claiming-human-age-of-AI
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[10]: https://www.slideshare.net/RonMcFarland1/the-starting-of-the-third-industrial-revolution
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[11]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_IV_reactor
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[T1]: https://isbnsearch.org/isbn/9780007427956
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[T2]: https://isbnsearch.org/isbn/9780007525850
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