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Software May Be Eating The World, But Open Source Software Is Eating Itself
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================================================================================
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**Nothing sits still for long in the world of open source.**
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Software may be eating the world, as [Marc Andreessen posits][1], but open-source software seems to be eating itself. And at a far faster clip. While the software world has grown used to products and their vendors dominating for long stretches (think: Microsoft in operating systems and Oracle in databases), the new world of open source is moving at an accelerated, Darwinian pace, leaving no project to rest on its laurels.
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In this fast-changing open source world, how should enterprises decide where to invest?
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### Open Source Picks Up The Pace ###
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Though [Dirk Riehle's analysis][2] of the total growth in open source projects is a few years old, if anything the trend he plots has [accelerated][3]:
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Today much of the interesting code in technology’s most important markets—Big Data, cloud, mobile—is open source. With more activity focused on areas like Hadoop or OpenStack, we should expect the pace and volume of open code creation to increase.
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Which may be good or bad.
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### No Rest For The Open Source Developer ###
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Take, for example, the configuration management market. Redmonk’s Stephen O’Grady sifts a number of data sources that measure the popularity of Chef, Puppet, Ansible and Salt, the latter two being very new to the market, yet demonstrating considerable community enthusiasm and adoption.
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This prompts O’Grady to [speculate][4] that “Where it once was reasonable to conclude that the configuration management space would evolve in similar fashion to the open source relational database market—i.e. with two dominant projects—that future is now in question.”
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O’Grady goes on to suggest:
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> The most interesting conclusion to be taken from this brief look at a variety of community data sources, however, may well be the relevance of both Ansible and Salt. That these projects appear to have viable prospects in front of them speaks to the demand for solutions in the area, as well as the strong influence of personal preferences—e.g. the affinity for Salt amongst Python developers.
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Actually, I’d argue that the most interesting conclusion is that no open-source project has guaranteed longevity. Puppet came out in 2005 and is still making headway against entrenched proprietary incumbents, yet now it has to fight off Chef (which came out four years later), Ansible (last two years) and Salt (last two years).
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Yes, incumbents in any important market, proprietary or otherwise, will always have new market entrants nibbling at their heels. But in open source, the competition doesn’t wait for billion-dollar markets to form before it launches attacks. The rise of Salt and Ansible in a market already well-served by Chef and Puppet is a testament to this.
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### The Community Giveth, And The Community Taketh Away ###
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You will find this same dynamic in content management (Drupal vs. Joomla vs. Alfresco vs. Wordpress vs. countless other CMSes), cloud (Eucalyptus vs. OpenStack vs. CloudStack vs. CloudFoundry vs. OpenShift vs. many others), [web servers][5] and databases, both relational and NoSQL.
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The ranks of open-source databases swell with new entrants almost daily, as can be seen on the [DB-Engines database tracking service][6]. Perhaps most interesting is the open-source relational database market. Up until recently, MySQL dominated that market. Postgres was a viable runner up to MySQL, but it was a very distant second.
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Today things are in motion. Or commotion. Largely due to Oracle’s alleged fumbling of the MySQL community, Postgres is on a tear, booming even with the hipster crowd that welcomed MySQL. But so is MariaDB. Though still a comparative gnat, leading [Linux distributions like Red Hat’s Fedora and Ubuntu have embraced MariaDB][7], as has Google, replacing MySQL.
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Perhaps, as O’Grady implies, this comes down to developer preferences. If developers rule, then little impedes them from switching to new projects that may fit their needs better, throwing a given market into disarray. If this is correct, it would explain why open source resists long term monopolies:
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It’s hard to keep developers happy.
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### Building A Community-Friendly Business ###
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What does this mean for enterprises that are looking to make long-term investments on a given open-source project? An easy, if unsatisfying, answer is that enterprises should contribute to the projects they care about, ensuring their sustainability as well as giving the enterprise the ability to support themselves should the project dwindle.
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But most enterprises don’t want to have to code the winner themselves.
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Instead they should look for popular projects that are good technical fits for their enterprise requirements and that have strong communities. Popularity can be fleeting if a project grows callous to its community. One of the primary reasons Linux has endured so long at the top of the operating system heap is that it has been so accommodating to community influence and requirements.
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Unfortunately, there’s no One True Way to measure vitality in an open source community. Some successful projects, like OpenStack, lean on a strong foundation. Others, like Linux, depend upon a strong individual and her lieutenants.
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But all successful open-source projects that maintain their lead innovate quickly, with regular releases every few months. While a fast-moving project may be more difficult for enterprises to support, it may also be a key indication that the project will remain relevant.
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How else should enterprises hedge against the risk of obsolescence of an open-source project?
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Lede image courtesy of [Shutterstock][8].
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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via: http://readwrite.com/2013/12/12/open-source-innovation
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译者：[译者ID](https://github.com/译者ID) 校对：[校对者ID](https://github.com/校对者ID)
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本文由 [LCTT](https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject) 原创翻译，[Linux中国](http://linux.cn/) 荣誉推出
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[1]:http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424053111903480904576512250915629460
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[2]:http://dirkriehle.com/publications/2008-2/the-total-growth-of-open-source/
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[3]:http://www.techrepublic.com/blog/linux-and-open-source/driving-forces-behind-linux-and-open-source-growth/
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[4]:http://redmonk.com/sogrady/2013/12/06/configuration-management-2013/
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[5]:http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/02/06/open_and_shut/
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[6]:http://db-engines.com/en/ranking
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[7]:http://www.zdnet.com/oracle-who-fedora-and-opensuse-will-replace-mysql-with-mariadb-7000010640/
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[8]:http://www.shutterstock.com/
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软件在吞噬世界，但是开源软件在吞噬自己
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**在开源世界，大家都不安分**
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像[Marc Andreessen posits][1]所说，软件可能在吞噬世界，但是开源软件似乎在吞噬自己.伴随着快速的步伐，软件世界逐渐习惯产业化，他们的卖主开始为更多的利益投资（比如：在操作系统方面的微软和数据库方面的甲骨文）, 开源软件的世界正迈向一个加速进化的时代，从来不满足于既得的荣誉。
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在快速变更的开源世界，企业如何投资？
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### 开源超神了 ###
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虽然[Dirk Riehle][2]对于开源项目增长的分析并不是特别过时，当然，一部分已经增长的趋势除外：
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现在大部分重要领域的技术-大数据，云，移动-都是开源的。伴随着Haddop、OpenStack等工具的活跃，我们应该期待开源软件牟足了劲发展。
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是好是坏？
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### 开源码农竞争激烈 ###
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举个栗子，在系统配置领域。 Redmonk’s Stephen O’Grady 挑了些数据用来
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衡量受欢迎程度，Chef, Puppet, Ansible 和 Salt，后面两个是这个领域的新星，但是赢得了相当的社区热情和采纳度。
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这让O’Grady [推测][4] 看起来合理地去认为系统配置领域会和开源关系型数据库一样有相同的变革趋势，伴随着两个突出的工程出现，这样的观点有点问题。
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O’Grady觉得：
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从这些观察中得出的最有趣的结论或许是 Ansible and Salt的关联。这些工程会有不错的前景，比如在这个领域对解决方案的需求，和非常强的个人偏好的影响，例如，Salt在Python开发者当中的亲和力。
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实际上，我必须承认最有趣的的结论是，没有开源项目能保证长久。Puppet 在2005年退出，并且一直在和有固定期权的在职者竞争，现在和Chef竞争（4年后退出），Ansible（最新两年）和Salt（最新两年）。
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任何重要领域的在职者，总是会穷追不舍地吹毛求疵。但是在开源世界，比赛不会等待十亿美元的市场在它产生影响的时候形成。Chef和Puppet铺垫了的Salt和Ansible在市场的上升就是一个证明。
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### 社区付出了，社区也拿走了 ###
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你会发现同样的动态在CMS中(Drupal vs. Joomla vs. Alfresco vs. Wordpress vs. countless other CMSes)，在云中(Eucalyptus vs. OpenStack vs. CloudStack vs. CloudFoundry vs. OpenShift vs. many others)，在[web servers][5]，关系和非关系的数据库中。
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开源数据库数量的膨胀伴随着几乎每天都产生的新对手，正如[DB-Engines database tracking service][6]中可以看到的一样。或许最好玩的是开源关系数据库领域，直到最近MySQL支配这个领域。Postgers也是和MySQL赛跑，虽然是老二，但是排得非常后。
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现在事情都在变化，或者骚动。很大程度因为Oracle的所谓的对MySQL社区的摸索，Postggres在最前沿的MySQLer中炙手可热。MariaDB也是这样。虽然还是一个小家伙，比如[Linux distributions like Red Hat’s Fedora and Ubuntu have embraced MariaDB][7]
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，Google换掉了MySQL。
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或许就像O’Grady说的，这归结为开发者的偏好。如果开发者占据主要地位，小小的可以阻碍他们向更合适自己的新项目转换的障碍，会导致秩序混乱。如果这有道理，将会很好解释开源为什么拒绝长期垄断。
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很难让开发者保持乐观。
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### 做一笔社区友好的生意 ###
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对于想要对已有的开源项目投资的企业，这意味着什么呢？一个简单的，如果没有满足的，的答案是企业应该投入到项目中，确定他们的可持续性，并且给予企业能力去支持他们自己。
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但是大部分企业不想自己码出最好的代码。
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相反，他们应该寻找受欢迎程度高的项目，非常适合企业的需求的，而且还有很强的社区的。如果项目在社区变得没什么意思的时候，欢迎程度可能会飞跃。最基础的原因，Linux已经在操作系统之巅呆了很久了，已经适应社区影响和需求。
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不幸的是，没有什么方法去真正衡量一个开源社区的活力。一些成功的项目，比如OpenStack，取决于强大的基础。其他的,像Linux，取决于强大的个人和他的帮手。
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但是所有成功的开源项目维持了他们强劲的热度，每几个月就会有一个发行版。快速发展的项目会非常难以供企业支持。
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企业应该怎样避免开源项目荒废的风险呢?
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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via: http://readwrite.com/2013/12/12/open-source-innovation
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译者：[ggaaooppeenngg](https://github.com/ggaaooppeenngg) 校对：[校对者ID](https://github.com/校对者ID)
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本文由 [LCTT](https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject) 原创翻译，[Linux中国](http://linux.cn/) 荣誉推出
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[1]:http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424053111903480904576512250915629460
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[2]:http://dirkriehle.com/publications/2008-2/the-total-growth-of-open-source/
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[3]:http://www.techrepublic.com/blog/linux-and-open-source/driving-forces-behind-linux-and-open-source-growth/
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[4]:http://redmonk.com/sogrady/2013/12/06/configuration-management-2013/
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[5]:http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/02/06/open_and_shut/
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[6]:http://db-engines.com/en/ranking
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[7]:http://www.zdnet.com/oracle-who-fedora-and-opensuse-will-replace-mysql-with-mariadb-7000010640/
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