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The Incredible Growth of Python
============================================================
We [recently explored][3] how wealthy countries (those defined as [high-income][4] by the World Bank) tend to visit a different set of technologies than the rest of the world. Among the largest differences we saw was in the programming language Python. When we focus on high-income countries, the growth of Python is even larger than it might appear from tools like [Stack Overflow Trends][5], or in other rankings that consider global software development.
In this post, we’ll explore the extraordinary growth of the Python programming language in the last five years, as seen by Stack Overflow traffic within high-income countries. The term “fastest-growing” can be [hard to define precisely][6], but we make the case that Python has a solid claim to being the fastest-growing major programming language.
All the numbers discussed in this post are for high-income countries; they’re generally representative of trends in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, and other such countries, which in combination make up about 64% of Stack Overflow’s traffic. Many other countries such as India, Brazil, Russia, and China also make enormous contributions to the global software development ecosystem, and this post is less descriptive of those economies, though we’ll see that Python has shown growth there as well.
It’s worth emphasizing up front that the number of users of a language isn’t a measure of the language’s quality: we’re  _describing_  the languages developers use, but not prescribing anything. (Full disclosure: I [used to program][7]primarily in Python, though I have since switched entirely to R).
### Python’s growth in high-income countries
You can see on [Stack Overflow Trends][8] that Python has been growing rapidly in the last few years. But for this post we’ll focus on high-income countries, and consider visits to questions rather than questions asked (this tends to give similar results, but has less month-by-month noise, especially for smaller tags).
We have data on Stack Overflow question views going back to late 2011, and in this time period we can consider the growth of Python relative to five other major programming languages. (Note that this is therefore a shorter time scale than the Trends tool, which goes back to 2008). These are currently six of the ten most-visited Stack Overflow tags in high-income countries; the four we didn’t include are CSS, HTML, Android, and JQuery.
![](https://zgab33vy595fw5zq-zippykid.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/growth_major_languages-1-1024x878.png)
June 2017 was the first month that Python was the most visited tag on Stack Overflow within high-income nations. This included being the most visited tag within the US and the UK, and in the top 2 in almost all other high income nations (next to either Java or JavaScript). This is especially impressive because in 2012, it was less visited than any of the other 5 languages, and has grown by 2.5-fold in that time.
Part of this is because of the seasonal nature of traffic to Java. Since it’s [heavily taught in undergraduate courses][9], Java traffic tends to rise during the fall and spring and drop during the summer. Will it catch up with Python again by the end of the year? We can try forecasting the next two years of growth with a [model called “STL”][10], which combines growth with seasonal trends to make a prediction about future values.
![](https://zgab33vy595fw5zq-zippykid.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/projections-1-1024x878.png)
According to this model, Python could either stay in the lead or be overtaken by Java in the fall (it’s roughly within the variation of the model’s predictions), but it’s clearly on track to become the most visited tag in 2018\. STL also suggests that JavaScript and Java will remain at similar levels of traffic among high income countries, just as they have for the last two years.
### What tags are growing the fastest overall?
The above was looking only at the six most-visited programming languages. Among other notable technologies, which are currently growing the fastest in high-income countries?
We defined the growth rate in terms of the ratio between 2017 and 2016 share of traffic. We decided to consider only programming languages (like Java and Python) and platforms (such as iOS, Android, Windows and Linux) in this analysis, as opposed to frameworks like [Angular][11] or libraries like [TensorFlow][12] (although many of those showed notable growth that may be examined in a future post).
Because of the challenges in defining “fastest-growing” described in [this comic][13], we compare the growth to the overall average in a [mean-difference plot][14].
![](https://zgab33vy595fw5zq-zippykid.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/tag_growth_scatter-1-1-1024x896.png)
With a 27% year-over year-growth rate, Python stands alone as a tag that is both large and growing rapidly; the next-largest tag that shows similar growth is R. We see that traffic to most other large tags has stayed pretty steady within high-income countries, with visits to Android, iOS, and PHP decreasing slightly. We previously examined some of the shrinking tags like Objective-C, Perl and Ruby in our [post on the death of Flash][15]). We can also notice that among functional programming languages, Scala is the largest and growing, while F# and Clojure are smaller and shrinking, with Haskell in between and remaining steady.
There’s an important omission from the above chart: traffic to TypeScript questions grew by an impressive 142% in the last year, enough that we left it off to avoid overwhelming the rest of the scale. You can also see that some other smaller languages are growing similarly or faster than Python (like R, Go and Rust), and there are a number of tags like Swift and Scala that are also showing impressive growth. How does their traffic over time compare to Python’s?
![](https://zgab33vy595fw5zq-zippykid.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/growth_smaller_tags-1-1024x878.png)
The growth of languages like R and Swift is indeed impressive, and TypeScript has shown especially rapid expansion in an even shorter time. Many of these smaller languages grew from getting almost no question traffic to become notable presences in the software ecosystem. But as this graph shows, it’s easier to show rapid growth when a tag started relatively small.
Note that we’re not saying these languages are in any way “competing” with Python. Rather, we’re explaining why we’d treat their growth in a separate category; these were lower-traffic tags to start with. Python is an unusual case for being both one of the most visited tags on Stack Overflow and one of the fastest-growing ones. (Incidentally, it is also accelerating! Its year-over-year growth has become faster each year since 2013).
### Rest of the world
So far in this post we’ve been analyzing the trends in high-income countries. Does Python show a similar growth in the rest of the world, in countries like India, Brazil, Russia and China?
Indeed it does.
![](https://zgab33vy595fw5zq-zippykid.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/non_high_income_graph-1-1-1024x731.png)
Outside of high-income countries Python is  _still_  the fastest growing major programming language; it simply started at a lower level and the growth began two years later (in 2014 rather than 2012). In fact, the year-over-year growth rate of Python in non-high-income countries is slightly  _higher_  than it is in high-income countries. We don’t examine it here, but R, the [other language whose usage is positively correlated with GDP][16], is growing in these countries as well.
Many of the conclusions in this post about the growth and decline of tags (as opposed to the absolute rankings) in high-income countries hold true for the rest of the world; there’s a 0.979 Spearman correlation between the growth rates in the two segments. In some cases, you can see a “lagging” phenomenon similar to what happened with Python, where a technology was widely adopted within high-income countries a year or two before it expanded in the rest of the world. (This is an interesting phenomenon and may be the subject of a future blog post!)
### Next time
We’re not looking to contribute to any “language war.” The number of users of a language doesn’t imply anything about its quality, and certainly can’t tell you which language is [more appropriate for a particular situation][17]. With that perspective in mind, however, we believe it’s worth understanding what languages make up the developer ecosystem, and how that ecosystem might be changing.
This post demonstrated that Python has shown a surprising growth in the last five years, especially within high-income countries. In our next post, we’ll start to explore the  _“why”_ . We’ll segment the growth by country and by industry, and examine what other technologies tend to be used alongside Python (to estimate, for example, how much of the growth has been due to increased usage of Python for web development versus for data science).
In the meantime, if you work in Python and are looking to take the next step in your career, here are [some companies hiring Python developers right now on Stack Overflow Jobs][18].
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
via: https://stackoverflow.blog/2017/09/06/incredible-growth-python/?cb=1
作者：[David Robinson][a]
译者：[译者ID](https://github.com/译者ID)
校对：[校对者ID](https://github.com/校对者ID)
本文由 [LCTT](https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject) 原创编译，[Linux中国](https://linux.cn/) 荣誉推出
[a]:https://stackoverflow.blog/authors/drobinson/
[1]:https://stackoverflow.blog/authors/drobinson/
[2]:https://stackoverflow.blog/authors/drobinson/
[3]:https://stackoverflow.blog/2017/08/29/tale-two-industries-programming-languages-differ-wealthy-developing-countries/?utm_source=so-owned&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=gen-blog&utm_content=blog-link&utm_term=incredible-growth-python
[4]:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank_high-income_economy
[5]:https://insights.stackoverflow.com/trends?tags=python%2Cjavascript%2Cjava%2Cc%23%2Cphp%2Cc%2B%2B&utm_source=so-owned&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=gen-blog&utm_content=blog-link&utm_term=incredible-growth-python
[6]:https://xkcd.com/1102/
[7]:https://stackoverflow.com/search?tab=newest&q=user%3a712603%20%5bpython%5d
[8]:https://insights.stackoverflow.com/trends?tags=python%2Cjavascript%2Cjava%2Cc%23%2Cphp%2Cc%2B%2B&utm_source=so-owned&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=gen-blog&utm_content=blog-link&utm_term=incredible-growth-python
[9]:https://stackoverflow.blog/2017/02/15/how-do-students-use-stack-overflow/
[10]:http://otexts.org/fpp2/sec-6-stl.html
[11]:https://stackoverflow.com/questions/tagged/angular
[12]:https://stackoverflow.com/questions/tagged/tensorflow
[13]:https://xkcd.com/1102/
[14]:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bland%E2%80%93Altman_plot
[15]:https://stackoverflow.blog/2017/08/01/flash-dead-technologies-might-next/?utm_source=so-owned&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=gen-blog&utm_content=blog-link&utm_term=incredible-growth-python
[16]:https://stackoverflow.blog/2017/08/29/tale-two-industries-programming-languages-differ-wealthy-developing-countries/?utm_source=so-owned&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=gen-blog&utm_content=blog-link&utm_term=incredible-growth-python
[17]:https://stackoverflow.blog/2011/08/16/gorilla-vs-shark/?utm_source=so-owned&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=gen-blog&utm_content=blog-link&utm_term=incredible-growth-python
[18]:https://stackoverflow.com/jobs/developer-jobs-using-python?utm_source=so-owned&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=gen-blog&utm_content=blog-link&utm_term=incredible-growth-python

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Python 的令人难以置信的成长
============================================================
我们[最近在探索][3]富裕国家（世界银行定义为[高收入] [4]）倾向于使用世界其他地区不同的技术。我们看到的最大的差异在于 Python 编程语言。当我们专注于高收入国家时，Python 的增长甚至比[Stack Overflow Trends][5]等工具或其他考虑全球软件开发的排名更大。
在本文中，我们将探讨在过去五年中 Python 编程语言的非凡增长，这如高收入国家的 Stack Overflow 流量一样。“增长最快”一词可以[很难准确定义][6]，但是我们认为 Python 可以成为增长最快的主流编程语言。
这篇文章中讨论的所有数字都是针对高收入国家的。它们一般代表了美国、英国、德国、加拿大等国家的趋势，其中 Stack Overflow 占据了大约 64％ 的流量。许多其他国家，如印度、巴西、俄罗斯和中国，也为全球软件开发生态系统做出了巨大贡献，尽管我们将看到 Python 在这方面也有增长，但本文对这些经济体的描述较少。
值得强调的是，一种语言的用户数量并不能衡量语言的质量：我们是在_描述_开发人员使用的语言，但没有规定任何东西。（完全披露：我[曾经][7]主要使用 Python 编程，尽管我已经完全切换到 R 了）。
### Python 在高收入国家的增长
你可以在 [Stack Overflow Trends][8] 中看到，Python 在过去几年中一直在快速增长。但是对于本文，我们将重点关注高收入国家，考虑的是问题的浏览量而不是提出量（这倾向于给出类似的结果，但是具有较少的每月噪音，特别是对于较小的标签）。
我们有关于 Stack Overflow 问题视图的数据可以追溯到 2011 年底，在这段时间内，我们可以考虑 Python 相对于其他五种主要编程语言的增长。 （请注意，这比 “Trends” 的时间范围更短，它可追溯到 2008 年）。这些目前是高收入国家十大访问 Stack Overflow 标签中的六个。我们没有包括的四个是 CSS、HTML、Android 和 JQuery。
![](https://zgab33vy595fw5zq-zippykid.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/growth_major_languages-1-1024x878.png)
2017 年 6 月，Python 是高收入国家 Stack Overflow 访问量最多的第一个月。这包括是美国和英国最受欢迎的标签，以及几乎所有其他高收入国家（除 Java 或 JavaScript 之外）的前两名。这是特别令人印象深刻的，因为在 2012 年，它比其他 5 种语言的访问量小，当时增长了 2.5 倍。
部分原因是因为 Java 流量的季节性。由于[在本科课程中有很多教学][9]，Java 流量在秋季和春季会上升，夏季则下降。到年底，它会再次赶上 Python 吗？我们可以尝试用一个叫做[ “STL” 的模型][10]来预测未来两年的增长, 它将增长与季节性趋势结合起来, 预测将来的价值。
![](https://zgab33vy595fw5zq-zippykid.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/projections-1-1024x878.png)
根据这个模型，Python 可能会在秋季保持领先地位或被 Java 取代（大致在模型预测的变化范围之内），但是它显然会在 2018 年成为浏览最多的标签。STL还表明，与过去两年一样，JavaScript 和 Java 在高收入国家中的流量水平将保持相似水平。
### 什么标签整体上增长最快？
上面只看了六个最受欢迎的编程语言。在其他显眼的技术中，哪些是目前在高收入国家中增长最快的技术？
我们以 2017 年至 2016 年流量的比例来定义增长率。在此分析中，我们决定仅考虑编程语言（如 Java 和 Python）和平台（如 iOS、Android、Windows 和 Linux），而不考虑像 [Angular][11] 或 [TensorFlow][12] （虽然其中许多有显著的增长，可能在未来的文章中审阅）这样的框架。
由于在[这个漫画][13]中描述的“最快增长”挑战，我们将增长与[平均差异图][14]中的整体平均值进行比较。
![](https://zgab33vy595fw5zq-zippykid.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/tag_growth_scatter-1-1-1024x896.png)
Python 以年 27％ 的增长率成为了又大又增长迅速的标签。下一个类似的标签是 R。我们看到，大多数其他大型标签的流量在高收入国家中保持稳定，浏览 Android、iOS 和 PHP 则略有下降。我们以前在[ Flash 的死亡这篇文章][15]中审阅一些正在衰减的标签，如 Objective-C、Perl 和 Ruby。我们还可以注意到，在函数编程语言中，Scala 是最大的并且不断增长的，而 F# 和 Clojure 较小并且正在衰减，Haskell 则保持稳定。
上面的图表中有一个重要的遗漏：去年，TypeScript 问题的流量增长了惊人的 142％，这足够让我们去除它以避免压倒其余的规模。你还可以看到，其他一些较小的语言的增长速度与 Python（例如 R、Go 和 Rust）类似或更快，而且还有许多标签，如 Swift 和 Scala，这些标签也显示出惊人的增长。它们随着时间的流量相比 Python 如何？
![](https://zgab33vy595fw5zq-zippykid.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/growth_smaller_tags-1-1024x878.png)
像 R 和 Swift 这样的语言的发展确实令人印象深刻，而 TypeScript 在更短的时间内显示出特别快速的扩张。这些较小的语言中， 有许多从很少的流量成为软件生态系统中引人注目的存在。但是如图所示，当标签开始相对较小时，显示出快速增长更容易。
请注意，我们并不是说这些语言与 “Python” 竞争。相反，我们解释了为什么我们要把他们的增长分成一个单独的类别。这些是从较低流量的标签开始。Python 是一个不寻常的案例，既是 Stack Overflow 中最受欢迎的标签之一，也是增长最快的其中之一。（顺便说一下，它也在加速！自 2013 年以来，每年的增长速度都会更快）。
### 世界其他地区
在这篇文章中，我们一直在分析高收入国家的趋势。在印度、巴西、俄罗斯和中国等国家，Python 在世界其他地区的增长情况如何？
确实如此。
![](https://zgab33vy595fw5zq-zippykid.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/non_high_income_graph-1-1-1024x731.png)
除了高收入国家之外，Python _仍_是增长最快的主要编程语言。它从较低的水平开始，两年后才开始增长（2014 年而不是 2012 年）。事实上，非高收入国家的 Python 同比增长率高于高收入国家。我们不在这里审阅，但是 R ([其他语言的使用与 GDP 正相关][16])在这些国家也在增长。
在这篇文章中，许多关于高收入国家标签 (相对于绝对排名) 的增长和下降的结论，对世界其他地区都是正确的。两个部分增长率之间有一个 0.979 Spearman 相关性。在某些情况下，你可以看到类似于 Python 上发生的 “滞后” 现象，其中一个技术在高收入国家被广泛采用，一年或两年才能在世界其他地区扩大。（这是一个有趣的现象，这可能是未来文章的主题！）
### 下一次
我们不打算为任何“语言战争”做贡献。一种语言的用户数量并不意味着它的质量，而且肯定不会让你知道哪种语言[更适合某种特定情况][17]。不过，考虑到这点，我们认为值得了解什么语言构成了开发者生态系统，以及生态系统会如何变化。
本文表明 Python 在过去五年中，特别是在高收入国家，显示出惊人的增长。在我们的下一篇文章中，我们将开始研究_“为什么”_。我们将按国家和行业划分增长情况，并研究有哪些其他技术与 Python 一起使用（例如，估计多少增长是由于 Python 用于 Web 开发而不是数据科学)。
在此期间，如果你使用 Python 工作，并希望你的职业生涯中进入下一阶段，那么[在 Stack Overflow Jobs 上有些公司正在招聘 Python 开发][18]。
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
via: https://stackoverflow.blog/2017/09/06/incredible-growth-python/?cb=1
作者：[David Robinson][a]
译者：[geekpi](https://github.com/geekpi)
校对：[校对者ID](https://github.com/校对者ID)
本文由 [LCTT](https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject) 原创编译，[Linux中国](https://linux.cn/) 荣誉推出
[a]:https://stackoverflow.blog/authors/drobinson/
[1]:https://stackoverflow.blog/authors/drobinson/
[2]:https://stackoverflow.blog/authors/drobinson/
[3]:https://stackoverflow.blog/2017/08/29/tale-two-industries-programming-languages-differ-wealthy-developing-countries/?utm_source=so-owned&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=gen-blog&utm_content=blog-link&utm_term=incredible-growth-python
[4]:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank_high-income_economy
[5]:https://insights.stackoverflow.com/trends?tags=python%2Cjavascript%2Cjava%2Cc%23%2Cphp%2Cc%2B%2B&utm_source=so-owned&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=gen-blog&utm_content=blog-link&utm_term=incredible-growth-python
[6]:https://xkcd.com/1102/
[7]:https://stackoverflow.com/search?tab=newest&q=user%3a712603%20%5bpython%5d
[8]:https://insights.stackoverflow.com/trends?tags=python%2Cjavascript%2Cjava%2Cc%23%2Cphp%2Cc%2B%2B&utm_source=so-owned&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=gen-blog&utm_content=blog-link&utm_term=incredible-growth-python
[9]:https://stackoverflow.blog/2017/02/15/how-do-students-use-stack-overflow/
[10]:http://otexts.org/fpp2/sec-6-stl.html
[11]:https://stackoverflow.com/questions/tagged/angular
[12]:https://stackoverflow.com/questions/tagged/tensorflow
[13]:https://xkcd.com/1102/
[14]:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bland%E2%80%93Altman_plot
[15]:https://stackoverflow.blog/2017/08/01/flash-dead-technologies-might-next/?utm_source=so-owned&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=gen-blog&utm_content=blog-link&utm_term=incredible-growth-python
[16]:https://stackoverflow.blog/2017/08/29/tale-two-industries-programming-languages-differ-wealthy-developing-countries/?utm_source=so-owned&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=gen-blog&utm_content=blog-link&utm_term=incredible-growth-python
[17]:https://stackoverflow.blog/2011/08/16/gorilla-vs-shark/?utm_source=so-owned&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=gen-blog&utm_content=blog-link&utm_term=incredible-growth-python
[18]:https://stackoverflow.com/jobs/developer-jobs-using-python?utm_source=so-owned&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=gen-blog&utm_content=blog-link&utm_term=incredible-growth-python