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(translating by runningwater)
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2015: Open Source Has Won, But It Isn't Finished
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> After the wins of 2014, what's next?
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At the beginning of a new year, it's traditional to look back over the last 12 months. But as far as this column is concerned, it's easy to summarise what happened then: open source has won. Let's take it from the top:
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**Supercomputers**. Linux is so dominant on the Top 500 Supercomputers lists it is almost embarrassing. The [November 2014 figures][1] show that 485 of the top 500 systems were running some form of Linux; Windows runs on just one. Things are even more impressive if you look at the numbers of cores involved. Here, Linux is to be found on 22,851,693 of them, while Windows is on just 30,720; what that means is that not only does Linux dominate, it is particularly strong on the bigger systems.
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**Cloud computing**. The Linux Foundation produced an interesting [report][2] last year, which looked at the use of Linux in the cloud by large companies. It found that 75% of them use Linux as their primary platform there, against just 23% that use Windows. It's hard to translate that into market share, since the mix between cloud and non-cloud needs to be factored in; however, given the current popularity of cloud computing, it's safe to say that the use of Linux is high and increasing. Indeed, the same survey found Linux deployments in the cloud have increased from 65% to 79%, while those for Windows have fallen from 45% to 36%. Of course, some may not regard the Linux Foundation as totaly disinterested here, but even allowing for that, and for statistical uncertainties, it's pretty clear which direction things are moving in.
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**Web servers**. Open source has dominated this sector for nearly 20 years - an astonishing record. However, more recently there's been some interesting movement in market share: at one point, Microsoft's IIS managed to overtake Apache in terms of the total number of Web servers. But as Netcraft explains in its most recent [analysis][3], there's more than meets the eye here:
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> This is the second month in a row where there has been a large drop in the total number of websites, giving this month the lowest count since January. As was the case in November, the loss has been concentrated at just a small number of hosting companies, with the ten largest drops accounting for over 52 million hostnames. The active sites and web facing computers metrics were not affected by the loss, with the sites involved being mostly advertising linkfarms, having very little unique content. The majority of these sites were running on Microsoft IIS, causing it to overtake Apache in the July 2014 survey. However the recent losses have resulted in its market share dropping to 29.8%, leaving it now over 10 percentage points behind Apache.
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As that indicates, Microsoft's "surge" was more apparent than real, and largely based on linkfarms with little useful content. Indeed, Netcraft's figures for active sites paints a very different picture: Apache has 50.57% market share, with nginx second on 14.73%; Microsoft IIS limps in with a rather feeble 11.72%. This means that open source has around 65% of the active Web server market - not quite at the supercomputer level, but pretty good.
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**Mobile systems**. Here, the march of open source as the foundation of Android continues. Latest figures show that Android accounted for [83.6%][4] of smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2014, up from 81.4% in the same quarter the previous year. Apple achieved 12.3%, down from 13.4%. As far as tablets are concerned, Android is following a similar trajectory: for the second quarter of 2014, Android notched up around [75% of global tablet sales][5], while Apple was on 25%.
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**Embedded systems**. Although it's much harder to quantify the market share of Linux in the important embedded system market, but figures from one 2013 study indicated that around [half of planned embedded systems][6] would use it.
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**Internet of Things**. In many ways this is simply another incarnation of embedded systems, with the difference that they are designed to be online, all the time. It's too early to talk of market share, but as I've [discussed][7] recently, AllSeen's open source framework is coming on apace. What's striking by their absence are any credible closed-source rivals; it therefore seems highly likely that the Internet of Things will see supercomputer-like levels of open source adoption.
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Of course, this level of success always begs the question: where do we go from here? Given that open source is approaching saturation levels of success in many sectors, surely the only way is down? In answer to that question, I recommend a thought-provoking essay from 2013 written by Christopher Kelty for the Journal of Peer Production, with the intriguing title of "[There is no free software.][8]" Here's how it begins:
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> Free software does not exist. This is sad for me, since I wrote a whole book about it. But it was also a point I tried to make in my book. Free software—and its doppelganger open source—is constantly becoming. Its existence is not one of stability, permanence, or persistence through time, and this is part of its power.
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In other words, whatever amazing free software 2014 has already brought us, we can be sure that 2015 will be full of yet more of it, as it continues its never-ending evolution.
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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via: http://www.computerworlduk.com/blogs/open-enterprise/open-source-has-won-3592314/
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作者：[lyn Moody][a]
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译者：[runningwater](https://github.com/runningwater)
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校对：[校对者ID](https://github.com/校对者ID)
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本文由 [LCTT](https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject) 原创翻译，[Linux中国](http://linux.cn/) 荣誉推出
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[a]:http://www.computerworlduk.com/author/glyn-moody/
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[1]:http://www.top500.org/statistics/list/
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[2]:http://www.linuxfoundation.org/publications/linux-foundation/linux-end-user-trends-report-2014
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[3]:http://news.netcraft.com/archives/2014/12/18/december-2014-web-server-survey.html
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[4]:http://www.cnet.com/news/android-stays-unbeatable-in-smartphone-market-for-now/
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[5]:http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/tech-news/Android-tablet-market-share-hits-70-in-Q2-iPads-slip-to-25-Survey/articleshow/38966512.cms
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[6]:http://linuxgizmos.com/embedded-developers-prefer-linux-love-android/
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[7]:http://www.computerworlduk.com/blogs/open-enterprise/allseen-3591023/
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[8]:http://peerproduction.net/issues/issue-3-free-software-epistemics/debate/there-is-no-free-software/
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2015:开源已经完胜，但还在继续
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================================================================================
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> 在 2014 年的完胜后，接下来会如何？
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新年伊始，习惯上都是回顾已经走过的一年。但只要观注我们的这个栏目，就会很容易获得过去一年的总结：开源已经全胜。让我们从头开始说起吧：
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**超级计算机**: Linux 在超级计算机系统 500 强的名单上占据绝对的主导地位这本身就令人很尴尬。[2014年11月的数据][1]显示前500系统中的485个系统都在运行着 Linux 的发布系统，而仅仅只有一台运行着 Windows 系统。如果您查询相关的核心数据，这问题更是让人触目惊心。截止到目前，Linux 系统有 22,851,693 之多而 windows 系统仅仅只有 30,720。这意味着什么？Linux 不仅仅是占据主导地位，在大型系统中已经是绝对的霸主了。
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**云计算**: 去年， Linux 基金会撰写了一个有趣的[报告][2],是关于大公司在云端使用 Linux 的情况的。它发现 75% 的大公司在使用 Linux 系统作为他们的主要平台，相对的使用 Windows 系统的只占 23%。因为需要考虑云端和非云端的因素，它们已经混淆在一起了，所以很难把这比例对应到真实的市场份额里。但是，鉴于当前云计算的流行度，可以很确定的说明 Linux 使用的高速增长。事实上，同样的调查发现，在云端的 Linux 部署率已经从 45% 增长到 79%，而对于 Windows 来说已经从 45% 下降到 36%。当然了，某些人可能认为 Linux 基金会在这块上并不是完全公正无私的，但即使是有私心或是统计的不确定性而有失公允，事情也正朝着预料的正确方向迈进。
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**Web 服务器**: 开源已经统治这个行业近20年 - 取得了一份很惊人的成绩。然而，最近在市场份额上出现了一些有趣的变动：一点就是，在 Web 服务器的总计数上，微软的 IIS 服务已经超越了 Apache 服务。但正如 Netcraft 公司其最近的[分析][3]解释所说的那样，这儿还有很多令人大饱眼福的地方呢：
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> 这是网站总数持续大幅回落以来的第二个月，从一月份以来，创造了一个月的最低点。由于在十一月份的时候，损失的仅仅只是集中在主机提供商中的一小部分，只占了5200万主机名数的十大点。这点损失相比于激活的站点和网站来说不是一个数据级的，所以造不成什么影响，但激活的这些站点大部分都是广告类的链接页面，基本上没有原创的内容。大多数这些站点都是运行在微软的 IIS 服务器上的，所以在2014年7月份的调查中 IIS 的使用数就超过的 Apache 的。然而，近期跌势已导致其市场份额下降到 29.8％，现在已经低于Apache 10个百分点了。
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这表明，微软的所谓“激增”更多的是表象，而事实并非如此，它的大多数增加都是基于链接页面站点，其内容很少有用。事实上，Netcraft公司的关于活动网站的数据给我们描绘了一幅完全不同的图表：Apache 拥有 50.57％ 的市场份额，nginx 的是 14.73％ 位居第二;微软的 IIS 很无力，占到了相当微弱的 11.72％。这意味着在活跃 Web 服务器市场上开源大约有65％的份额 - 虽然没有超级计算机那么高的水平，但也还不错。
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**移动设备系统**. 目前，开源的大军主要是 Andriod 为基础在继续着。最新数据表明，在2014年第三季度的智能手机出货量中，Andriod 设备的市场份额从去年同期的 81.4% 上升到了 [83.6%][4]。苹果的从去年同期的 13.4% 下降到 12.3%。对于平板电脑来说，Android 平板遵循同样的轨迹：在2014年第二季度，Android 平板的占有率达到[全球平板电脑的销量的75％][5]左右，而苹果的只有25％。
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**嵌入式系统**: 虽然很难量化 Linux 在的重要的嵌入式系统市场的市场份额，但来一个自 2013 年的研究数字表明，[计划大约一半的嵌入式系统][6]将会采用 Linux。
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**物联网**: 在很多方面上可以把它们简单的认为是嵌入式系统的另外一个化身，不同之处在于它们被设计为一直在线的。虽然现在谈论它的市场份额还有点为时过早，但如我在[讨论栏目][7]里的，AllSeen 的物联网开源框架正进行的如火如荼。他们所缺少的也最引入注目的事情是要让任何可信任的闭源项目把其当做对手。因此，很有可能物联网将会通过开源的方式来达到 Linux 在超级计算机中的占有率这样的水平。
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当然了，这个阶段的成功也带来了一些问题：我们将何去何从？鉴于开源将会使很多成功的行业达到饱和点，想必唯一的办法就是下跌吗？要回答这个问题，我建议浏览下 Christopher Kelty 于2013年写的一篇供同行参阅、发人深省的文章，有个耐人寻味的标题“[天下没有免费的软件][8]”。下面是他的开头段：
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> 免费软件并不存在。在我写了一整本书后，我莫名的忧伤。但这也是我写进文章的一个观点。免费软件和它的分身开源正在不断的变化着。它并不是一直持续不变的，不稳定、不固定、不持久，这正是它的特色的一部分。
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换句话说，无论2014年带给我们多少惊人的免费软件，我们也确信2015年会更多更丰富，因为进化是永无止境的。
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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via: http://www.computerworlduk.com/blogs/open-enterprise/open-source-has-won-3592314/
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作者：[lyn Moody][a]
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译者：[runningwater](https://github.com/runningwater)
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校对：[校对者ID](https://github.com/校对者ID)
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本文由 [LCTT](https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject) 原创翻译，[Linux中国](http://linux.cn/) 荣誉推出
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[a]:http://www.computerworlduk.com/author/glyn-moody/
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[1]:http://www.top500.org/statistics/list/
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[2]:http://www.linuxfoundation.org/publications/linux-foundation/linux-end-user-trends-report-2014
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[3]:http://news.netcraft.com/archives/2014/12/18/december-2014-web-server-survey.html
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[4]:http://www.cnet.com/news/android-stays-unbeatable-in-smartphone-market-for-now/
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[5]:http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/tech-news/Android-tablet-market-share-hits-70-in-Q2-iPads-slip-to-25-Survey/articleshow/38966512.cms
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[6]:http://linuxgizmos.com/embedded-developers-prefer-linux-love-android/
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[7]:http://www.computerworlduk.com/blogs/open-enterprise/allseen-3591023/
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[8]:http://peerproduction.net/issues/issue-3-free-software-epistemics/debate/there-is-no-free-software/
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