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translating by wwy-hust
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Will Ubuntu Linux Hit 200 Million Users This Year?
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================================================================================
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It's been four years and two weeks since Mark Shuttleworth expressed his goal of "200 million users of Ubuntu in 4 years." While Ubuntu's presence has continued to increase over the past four years, it doesn't look like that goal has been realized yet or will be by the end of the calendar year.
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It was back at [UDS Budapest][1] in May of 2011 when Shuttleworth expressed a goal of 200 million Ubuntu users in four years.
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Last I heard there was "tens of millions" of Ubuntu Linux users, but haven't seen any reliable reports anywhere of the Ubuntu user-base being close to 200 million. The latest monthly statistics from Valve show [the Linux gaming population being below 1%][2] compared to Windows and OS X. Most usage statistics based on web metrics and other data tend to put the total Linux user-base at just a few percent.
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Aside from desktop installations, Ubuntu at least has made substantial inroads with cloud and server deployments over the past four years and have proven to be a contender with Red Hat Enterprise Linux on such fronts. Ubuntu has also proven itself quite well on ARM hardware. When Mark was coming up with his goal in four years, he was probably thinking that Ubuntu Phone/Touch would be much further along than where it is now: just having one device available in the EU and [a second currently in China][3] and [the Ubuntu Touch software stack still maturing][4] with [major work on key apps still needed][5], etc.
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It's also been three years since the Canonical claim of [Ubuntu would soon ship on 5% of PCs][6]. The 5% claim was for worldwide PC shipments, but even three years later, I have a hard time believing that... At least in the US and Europe I still very rarely see Ubuntu preloads on systems within brick and mortar stores while the major Internet retailers / OEMs still tend to offer Linux on a few select PC models, sans Chrome OS / Android devices.
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Another lofty, unrelated goal that went unreached by the open-source community was [GNOME owning 10% of the global desktop market by 2010][7]. Five years later, there's no indication they're even close to reaching that 10x10 milestone.
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How large do you think the Ubuntu user-base is today? How large do you think the Ubuntu (or Linux) user-base will grow in the years to come? Share with us your thoughts by commenting on this article.
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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via: http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=2015-200-Million-Goal-Retro
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作者：[Michael Larabel][a]
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译者：[译者ID](https://github.com/译者ID)
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校对：[校对者ID](https://github.com/校对者ID)
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本文由 [LCTT](https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject) 原创翻译，[Linux中国](https://linux.cn/) 荣誉推出
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[a]:http://www.michaellarabel.com/
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[1]:http://www.phoronix.com/vr.php?view=16002
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[2]:http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=Steam-April-2015-1-Drop
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[3]:http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=Ubuntu-MX4-In-China
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[4]:http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=Ubuntu-Calculator-Reboot
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[5]:http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=MTgzOTM
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[6]:http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=MTA5ODM
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[7]:https://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=Nzg1Mw
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Ubuntu会在今年达到2亿用户么？
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================================================================================
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距离Mark Shuttleworth表达他的目标“在4年内Ubuntu的用户达到2亿”已经过去了四年零两周。尽管Ubuntu的用户数量在过去的四年中一直在上升，但这个目标目前并未实现，并且看起来不会在今年年底实现。
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那是2011年5月在[UDS 布达佩斯][1]，Shuttleworth表示Ubuntu将在4年内达到2亿用户。
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上一次我听到Ubuntu有“1千万”用户，但是并没有任何可靠的报道表明Ubuntu的用户数接近2亿。来自Valve最近的统计表明相比于Windows和OS X的用户[使用Linux的游戏用户的比重少于1%][2]。大多数基于Web计量和其他统计方式的数据倾向于表明Linux的用户总数只占很少的部分。
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撇开桌面版不谈，Ubuntu在过去的四年来至少在云和服务器部署方面得到了大量的占有率，并且被证明是Red Hat Enterprise的有力竞争者。Ubuntu还证明了它对基于ARM的硬件十分友好。当Mark在四年前提出他的目标时，他可能考虑到Ubuntu Phone/Touch会比目前的状况更好。可是Ubuntu Phone/Touch目前仅仅在欧洲和[中国][3]可用，并且[Ubuntu Touch软件依旧在成熟的路上][4]，[仍需要大量的关键应用程序方面的工作][5]等。
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距离Canonical宣布[Ubuntu不久将登陆5%的PC][6]也已过去了3年。5%的目标是全球的PC装机量，但哪怕再过3年，我依旧很难相信这个目标会实现。至少在美国和欧洲，我仍难以在实体店看到Ubuntu作为预装的系统，主要的网络零售商/OEM厂商仍倾向于在特定的PC型号中提供Linux，比如Chrome OS、Android设备。
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另一个由开源社区提出的高傲地、落空的目标便是[GNOME将在2010年占有全球桌面市场10%的份额][7]。五年前，没有任何迹象表明他们接近了那10%的里程碑。
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在今天，您认为Ubuntu用户有多少呢？在未来的几年里，Ubuntu（或者Linux）的用户会有多大增长呢？通过评论来与我们分享您的想法吧。
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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via: http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=2015-200-Million-Goal-Retro
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作者：[Michael Larabel][a]
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译者：[译者ID](https://github.com/译者ID)
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校对：[校对者ID](https://github.com/校对者ID)
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本文由 [LCTT](https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject) 原创翻译，[Linux中国](https://linux.cn/) 荣誉推出
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[a]:http://www.michaellarabel.com/
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[1]:http://www.phoronix.com/vr.php?view=16002
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[2]:http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=Steam-April-2015-1-Drop
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[3]:http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=Ubuntu-MX4-In-China
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[4]:http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=Ubuntu-Calculator-Reboot
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[5]:http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=MTgzOTM
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[6]:http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=MTA5ODM
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[7]:https://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=Nzg1Mw
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