[translated] 20140929 What Linux Users Should Know About Open Hardware.md

sources/talk/20140929 What Linux Users Should Know About Open Hardware.md

@@ -1,66 +0,0 @@
-zpl1025
-What Linux Users Should Know About Open Hardware
-================================================================================
-> What Linux users don't know about manufacturing open hardware can lead them to disappointment.
-
-Business and free software have been intertwined for years, but the two often misunderstand one another. That's not surprising -- what is just a business to one is way of life for the other. But the misunderstanding can be painful, which is why debunking it is a worth the effort.
-
-An increasingly common case in point: the growing attempts at open hardware, whether from Canonical, Jolla, MakePlayLive, or any of half a dozen others. Whether pundit or end-user, the average free software user reacts with exaggerated enthusiasm when a new piece of hardware is announced, then retreats into disillusionment as delay follows delay, often ending in the cancellation of the entire product.
-
-It's a cycle that does no one any good, and often breeds distrust – and all because the average Linux user has no idea what's happening behind the news.
-
-My own experience with bringing products to market is long behind me. However, nothing I have heard suggests that anything has changed. Bringing open hardware or any other product to market remains not just a brutal business, but one heavily stacked against newcomers.
-
-### Searching for Partners ###
-
-Both the manufacturing and distribution of digital products is controlled by a relatively small number of companies, whose time can sometimes be booked months in advance. Profit margins can be tight, so like movie studios that buy the rights to an ancient sit-com, the manufacturers usually hope to clone the success of the latest hot product. As Aaron Seigo told me when talking about his efforts to develop the Vivaldi tablet, the manufacturers would much rather prefer someone else take the risk of doing anything new.
-
-Not only that, but they would prefer to deal with someone with an existing sales record who is likely to bring repeat business.
-
-Besides, the average newcomer is looking at a product run of a few thousand units. A chip manufacturer would much rather deal with Apple or Samsung, whose order is more likely in the hundreds of thousands.
-
-Faced with this situation, the makers of open hardware are likely to find themselves cascading down into the list of manufacturers until they can find a second or third tier manufacturer that is willing to take a chance on a small run of something new.
-
-They might be reduced to buying off-the-shelf components and assembling units themselves, as Seigo tried with Vivaldi. Alternatively, they might do as Canonical did, and find established partners that encourage the industry to take a gamble. Even if they succeed, they have usually taken months longer than they expected in their initial naivety.
-
-### Staggering to Market ###
-
-However, finding a manufacturer is only the first obstacle. As Raspberry Pi found out, even if the open hardware producers want only free software in their product, the manufacturers will probably insist that firmware or drivers stay proprietary in the name of protecting trade secrets.
-
-This situation is guaranteed to set off criticism from potential users, but the open hardware producers have no choice except to compromise their vision. Looking for another manufacturer is not a solution, partly because to do so means more delays, but largely because completely free-licensed hardware does not exist. The industry giants like Samsung have no interest in free hardware, and, being new, the open hardware producers have no clout to demand any.
-
-Besides, even if free hardware was available, manufacturers could probably not guarantee that it would be used in the next production run. The producers might easily find themselves re-fighting the same battle every time they needed more units.
-
-As if all this is not enough, at this point the open hardware producer has probably spent 6-12 months haggling. The chances are, the industry standards have shifted, and they may have to start from the beginning again by upgrading specs.
-
-### A Short and Brutal Shelf Life ###
-
-Despite these obstacles, hardware with some degree of openness does sometimes get released. But remember the challenges of finding a manufacturer? They have to be repeated all over again with the distributors -- and not just once, but region by region.
-
-Typically, the distributors are just as conservative as the manufacturers, and just as cautious about dealing with newcomers and new ideas. Even if they agree to add a product to their catalog, the distributors can easily decide not to encourage their representatives to promote it, which means that in a few months they have effectively removed it from the shelves.
-
-Of course, online sales are a possibility. But meanwhile, the hardware has to be stored somewhere, adding to the cost. Production runs on demand are expensive even in the unlikely event that they are available, and even unassembled units need storage.
-
-### Weighing the Odds ###
-
-I have been generalizing wildly here, but anyone who has ever been involved in producing anything will recognize what I am describing as the norm. And just to make matters worse, open hardware producers typically discover the situation as they are going through it. Inevitably, they make mistakes, which adds still more delays.
-
-But the point is, if you have any sense of the process at all, your knowledge is going to change how you react to news of another attempt at hardware. The process means that, unless a company has been in serious stealth mode, an announcement that a product will be out in six months will rapidly prove to be an outdate guestimate. 12-18 months is more likely, and the obstacles I describe may mean that the product will never actually be released.
-
-For example, as I write, people are waiting for the emergence of the first Steam Machines, the Linux-based gaming consoles. They are convinced that the Steam Machines will utterly transform both Linux and gaming.
-
-As a market category, Steam Machines may do better than other new products, because those who are developing them at least have experience developing software products. However, none of the dozen or so Steam Machines in development have produced more than a prototype after almost a year, and none are likely to be available for buying until halfway through 2015. Given the realities of hardware manufacturing, we will be lucky if half of them see daylight. In fact, a release of 2-4 might be more realistic.
-
-I make that prediction with next to no knowledge of any of the individual efforts. But, having some sense of how hardware manufacturing works, I suspect that it is likely to be closer to what happens next year than all the predictions of a new Golden Age for Linux and gaming. I would be entirely happy being wrong, but the fact remains: what is surprising is not that so many Linux-associated hardware products fail, but that any succeed even briefly.
-
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
-via: http://www.datamation.com/open-source/what-linux-users-should-know-about-open-hardware-1.html
-
-作者：[Bruce Byfield][a]
-译者：[译者ID](https://github.com/译者ID)
-校对：[校对者ID](https://github.com/校对者ID)
-
-本文由 [LCTT](https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject) 原创翻译，[Linux中国](http://linux.cn/) 荣誉推出
-
-[a]:http://www.datamation.com/author/Bruce-Byfield-6030.html

translated/talk/20140929 What Linux Users Should Know About Open Hardware.md

@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+Linux用户应该了解一下开源硬件
+================================================================================
+> Linux用户不了解一点开源硬件制造相关的事情，他们将会很失望。
+
+商业软件和免费软件已经互相纠缠很多年了，但是这俩经常误解对方。这并不奇怪 -- 对一方来说是生意，而另一方只是一种生活方式。但是，这种误解会给人带来痛苦，这也是为什么值得花精力去揭露这里面的内幕。
+
+一个逐渐普遍的现象：对开源硬件的不断尝试，不管是Canonical，Jolla，MakePlayLive，或者其他几个。不管是评论员或终端用户，一般的免费软件用户会为新的硬件平台发布表现出过分的狂热，然后因为不断延期有所醒悟，最终放弃整个产品。
+
+这是一个没有人获益的怪圈，而且滋生出不信任 - 都是因为一般的Linux用户根本不知道这些新闻背后发生的事情。
+
+我个人对于把产品推向市场的经验很有限。但是，我还不知道谁能有所突破。推出一个开源硬件或其他产品到市场仍然不仅仅是个残酷的生意，而且严重不利于新加入的厂商。
+
+### 寻找合作伙伴 ###
+
+不管是数码产品的生产还是分销都被相对较少的一些公司控制着，有时需要数月的预订。利润率也会很低，所以就像那些购买古老情景喜剧的电影工作室一样，生成商一般也希望复制当前热销产品的成功。像Aaron Seigo在谈到他花精力开发Vivaldi平板时告诉我的，生产商更希望能由其他人去承担开发新产品的风险。
+
+不仅如此，他们更希望和那些有现成销售记录的有可能带来可复制生意的人合作。
+
+而且，一般新加入的厂商所关心的产品只有几千的量。芯片制造商更愿意和苹果或三星合作，因为它们的订单很可能是几百K。
+
+面对这种情形，开源硬件制造者们可能会发现他们在工厂的列表中被淹没了，除非能找到二线或三线厂愿意尝试一下小批量生产新产品。
+
+他们也许还会沦为采购成品组件再自己组装，就像Seigo尝试Vivaldi时那样做的。或者，他们也许可以像Canonical那样做，寻找一些愿意为这个产业冒险的合作伙伴。而就算他们成功了，一般也会比最初天真的预期延迟数个月。
+
+### 磕磕碰碰走向市场 ###
+
+然而，寻找生产商只是第一关。根据树莓派项目的经验，就算开源硬件制造者们只想在他们的产品上运行免费软件，生产商们很可能会以保护商业机密的名义坚持使用专有固件或驱动。
+
+这样必然会引起潜在用户的批评，但是开源硬件制造者没得选，只能折中他们的愿景。寻找其他生产商也不能解决问题，有一个原因是这样做意味着更多延迟，但是更多的是因为完全免授权费的硬件是不存在的。像三星这样的业内巨头对免费硬件没有任何兴趣，而作为新人，开源硬件制造者也没有影响力去要求什么。
+
+更何况，就算有免费硬件，生产商也不能保证会用在下一批生产中。制造者们会轻易地发现他们每次需要生产的时候都要重打一样的仗。
+
+这些都还不够，这个时候开源硬件制造者们也许已经花了6-12个月时间来讨价还价。机会来了，产业标准已经变更，他们也许为了升级产品规格又要从头来过。
+
+### 短暂而且残忍的货架期 ###
+
+尽管面对这么多困难，一定程度上开放的硬件也终于推出了。还记得寻找生产商时的挑战吗？对于分销商也会有同样的问题 -- 还不只是一次，而是每个地区都要解决。
+
+通常，分销商和生成商一样保守，对于和新人或新点子打交道也很谨慎。就算他们同意一个产品上架，他们也轻易能够决定不鼓励自己的销售代表们做推广，这意味着这个产品会在几个月后很有效率地下架。
+
+当然，在线销售也是可以的。但是同时，硬件还是需要被存放在某个地方，这也会增加成本。而按需生产就算可能的话也将非常昂贵，而且没有组装的元件也需要存放。
+
+### 衡量整件怪事 ###
+
+在这里我只是粗略地概括了一下，但是任何涉足过制造的人会认出我形容成标准的东西。而更糟糕的是，开源硬件制造者们通常在这个过程中才会有所觉悟。不可避免，他们也会犯错，从而带来更多的延迟。
+
+但重点是，一旦你对整个过程有所了解，你对另一个开源硬件进行尝试的消息的反应就会改变。这个过程意味着，除非哪家公司处于严格的保密模式，对于产品将于六个月内发布的声明会很快会被证实是过期的推测。很可能是12-18个月，而且面对之前提过的那些困难很可能意味着这个产品永远不会真正发布。
+
+举个例子，就像我写的，人们等待第一代Steam Machines面世，它是一台基于Linux的游戏主机。他们相信Steam Machines能彻底改变Linux和游戏。
+
+作为一个市场分类，Steam Machines也许比其他新产品更有优势，因为参与开发的人员至少有开发软件产品的经验。然而，整整一年过去了Steam Machines的开发成果都还只有原型机，而且直到2015年中都不一定能买到。面对硬件生产的实际情况，就算有一半能见到阳光都是很幸运了。而实际上，能发布2-4台也许更实际。
+
+我做出这个预测并没有考虑个体努力。但是，对硬件生产的理解，比起那些Linux和游戏的黄金年代之类的预言，我估计这个更靠谱。如果我错了也会很开心，但是事实不会改变：让人吃惊的不是如此多的Linux相关硬件产品失败了，而是那些即使是短暂的成功的产品。
+
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+via: http://www.datamation.com/open-source/what-linux-users-should-know-about-open-hardware-1.html
+
+作者：[Bruce Byfield][a]
+译者：[zpl1025](https://github.com/zpl1025)
+校对：[校对者ID](https://github.com/校对者ID)
+
+本文由 [LCTT](https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject) 原创翻译，[Linux中国](http://linux.cn/) 荣誉推出
+
+[a]:http://www.datamation.com/author/Bruce-Byfield-6030.html