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[#]: subject: "Near zero marginal cost societies and the impact on why we work"
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[#]: via: "https://opensource.com/open-organization/22/5/near-zero-marginal-cost-societies-and-impact-why-we-work"
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[#]: author: "Ron McFarland https://opensource.com/users/ron-mcfarland"
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[#]: collector: "lkxed"
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[#]: translator: "CanYellow"
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[#]: reviewer: " "
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[#]: publisher: " "
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[#]: url: " "
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Near zero marginal cost societies and the impact on why we work
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======
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As the IoT becomes our working and living environment, energy costs will come closer to zero and community collaboration will be critical.
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![A network of people][1]
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Image by: Opensource.com
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I have read Jeremy Rifkin's book [The Zero Marginal Cost Society: The Internet of Things, the Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism][2], which has a strong connection to open organization principles, particularly community building. Rifkin also writes about the future of green energy generation and energy use in logistics. This is the second of three articles in this series. In my previous article, I examined the Collaborative Commons. In this article, I look at its impact on energy production and supply.
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Within the next 25 years, Rifkin believes most of our energy for home heating, running appliances, powering businesses, driving vehicles, and operating the whole economy will be nearly free with on-site power solar, wind and geothermal energy generation. This is starting already, through both individual and micropower plants. The payback is around two to eight years.
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What would be the best organizational structure to manage nearly free green energy? Furthermore, through an intelligent communication and energy system, an organization could generate business anywhere in the world, and share energy across a continental energy internet. On top of that, it could produce and sell goods at a fraction charged by global manufacturing giants.
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### The Internet of Things is on the way
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According to Rifkin, the Internet of Things (IoT) will connect every machine, business, residence, and vehicle in an intelligent network that consists of not just a communications internet like now, but in the future an energy internet, and a logistics internet. They will all be embedded in a single operating system. Energy use will be completely monitored. Rifkin believes that within 10 years, many smart energy meters will be in use (by 2025). All this investment will reduce at least 10% of the waste in the current industrial system.
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All this will be possible with the reduction of costs of sensors and actuators embedded in devices. Radio-frequency identification (RFID) chip prices have fallen by 40% in around 2012-2013. Micro-electromechanical system (MEMS), including gyroscopes, accelerometers, and pressure sensors, have also dropped by 80-90% in price over the past five years (up to 2015 when this book was published).
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This will increase device connections, to as many as 1,000 connections on one person's devices, appliances, and facilities. This connection is what young people love, total inclusion in a global virtual public square to share everything. They thrive on transparency, collaboration, and inclusivity with care taken to an appropriate level of privacy. So, you can see, the time is right for the growth of a Collaborative Commons in society.
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### Exponential curve
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Question: Would you accept US $1,000,000 today or US $1.00 that doubled every day for 30 days? (In 30 days it will be US $536,870,912. That is 500 times more). In 31 days, over one billion. Exponential growth is deceptively fast. That is how fast costs are coming down according to Rifkin. This will turn the entire fossil fuel industry investments into stranded assets. We should be planning for the Collaborative Commons using all open organization principles now, as the situation will be ideal for them very soon.
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### Next, a free energy internet
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At this point in time there is free information for learning if you look for it. The next step is free energy (solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, hydro). After initial investments (research, development, deployment), Rifkin forecasts that unit costs will rapidly come down. The information internet and near zero-cost renewables will merge into the energy internet, powering homes, offices, and factories. Ideally, there will be energy that's loaded into buildings and partially stored in the form of hydrogen, distributed over a green-electricity internet, and connected to plug-in, zero-emission transportation. The development of renewable energy establishes a five pillar mechanism that will allow billions of people to share energy at near zero marginal cost in the IoT world
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### Solar energy
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If you start collecting energy from the sun, facilities only need to obtain 00.1% of the sun's energy that reaches the Earth. That would provide six times the energy we now use globally.
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[SunPower Corporation][3] is one company doing that. It supports making homes energy producers. The price of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells tends to drop by 20% for every doubling of industry capacity. Solar panels are increasing, and their ability to capture more energy per panel is increasing. Expect to see the development of thinner solar panels, and paper thin solar sheets. Eventually there will be solar energy paint and solar energy windows in the future.
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When too much energy is generated, it must be sold elsewhere or stored in batteries or used to produce hydrogen. This technology is coming to the market and will dominate it very soon. With these technologies alone, electricity is on the way to have zero marginal cost.
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### Wind power generation
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Wind power has been growing exponentially since the 1990s, and is now nearing fossil fuel and nuclear power generation levels (as of 2015). With the lowering costs of windmill production, installation, and maintenance, wind power is doubling every 2-½ years. With the increase of solar and wind energy sources, governments do not need to subsidize them with tariffs any longer.
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[Energy Watch Group][4] is tracking this. According to Rifkin geothermal energy, biomass, and wave and tidal power will likely reach their own exponential takeoff stage within the next decade. He believes that all this will happen in the first half of the twenty-first century. If this capacity doubles eight more times, by 2028, 80% of all energy generation will be from these renewables.
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### The collaborative age will soon be here
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With all the above developments, society's working and living environment are changing. According to the [collaborative age][5]: "This means ensuring that people can collaborate on tasks without friction. That humans and machines work seamlessly together. And automation — machine to machine collaboration — will be crucial. Those businesses that get these elements right will be able to boost employee satisfaction and attract the best talent. They will reduce costs by automating mundane tasks and by requiring a smaller office footprint. The social impact-focused organizations that [Laura Hilliger][6] and [Heather Leson][7] write about how to take advantage of this new age.
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### Making the transition
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It sounds good, but how do businesses transition from the information age to the collaboration age? One area will be in decentralized production through 3D printing technology ([additive manufacturing][8], not cutting away and creating waste).
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Instead of shipping goods, in the future, software will be shipped for many items to be manufactured locally, avoiding all shipping costs and making manufacturing become on-site near where the market need is. Locally, newly developed molten plastics, molten metal, or other feedstock inside a printer will be used for fabrication. This will give one 3D printer the ability to produce tens of thousands of products (like jewelry, airplane parts, and human prostheses).
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### Centralized manufacturing vs local production which Rifkin projects will come
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Rifkin believes lower marketing costs are possible by using the IoT economy and using global internet marketing sites at almost zero marginal cost.
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1. There is little human involvement in the local 3D process (giving the name "infofacture" rather than manufacture. They ship the information required for local manufacturing, like downloading music today. It is just code that you receive.
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2. The code for 3D printing is open source, so people can learn and improve designs, becoming further prosumers in a wide range of items (no intellectual-property protection barriers). This will lead to exponential growth over the next several decades, offering more complicated products at lower prices and near zero marginal cost.
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3. There is great waste with subtraction processes (current manufacturing processes) producing great waste with each process. (1/10 the materials required. This material could be developed from subatomic particles that are available anywhere in the local environment, like recycled glass, fabrics, ceramics, and stainless steel. Composite-fiber concrete could be extruded form-free and be strong enough for building construction walls [probably available in two decades].)
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4. 3D printing processes have fewer moving parts and less spare parts. Therefore, expensive retooling and changeover delays will be less extensive.
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5. Materials will be more durable, recyclable, and less polluting.
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6. Local distributed production, through IoT, will spread globally at an exponential rate with little shipping cost and less use of energy.
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Rifkin cites Etsy as an example of this model. You can find things you are interested in, and have them produced locally using their network. They sell the code, and you can have it supplied in your area.
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Rifkin feels that in the future, small and medium sized 3D businesses, infofacturing more sophisticated products, will likely cluster in local technology parks to establish an optimum lateral scale (another form of community development). Here are current examples:
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1. [RepRap][9]: This is a manufacturing machine that can produce itself and all its parts.
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2. [Thingiverse][10] The largest 3D printing community. They share under the General Public Licenses (GPL) and Creative Commons Licenses.
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3. Fab Lab: Open source peer-to-peer learning in manufacturing. It is being provided to local, distant communities in developing countries.
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4. 3D Printed automobiles ([Urbee vehicle][11]) is already being tested.
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5. [KOR EcoLogic][12] has an urban electric vehicle.
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### The makers' movement principles
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Here are the principles that these ecosystems follow:
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1. They use open source shared software.
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2. They promote a collaborative learning culture.
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3. They believe that it will build a self-sufficient community.
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4. They are committed to sustainable production practices.
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### The future of work and collaborative commons
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When technology replaces workers, capital investments replace labor investments. In 2007, companies used 6 times more computers and software than 20 years before, doubling the amount of capital used per hour of employee work. The robot workforce is on the rise. China, India, Mexico, and other emerging nations are learning that the cheapest workers in the world are not as cheap, efficient, or productive as the information technology, robotics, and artificial intelligence that replaces them.
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Going back to Rifkin, the first industrial revolution ended slave and serf labor. The second industrial revolution will dramatically shrink agricultural and craft labor. Rifkin believes the third industrial revolution will be a decline in mass wage labor in the manufacturing, service industries, and salaried professional labor in large parts of the knowledge sector.
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Rifkin believes that an abundance, zero marginal cost economy, will change our notion of economic processes. He thinks the old paradigm of owners and workers, sellers and consumers will break down. Consumers will start producing for themselves (and a few others), eliminating their distinction. Prosumers will increasingly be able to produce, consume, and share their own goods and services with one another on the Collaborative Commons at diminishing marginal costs approaching zero, bringing to the fore new ways of organizing economic life beyond the traditional capitalist market mode.
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Rifkin forecasts that in the future, greater importance will be placed on the Collaborative Commons and be as important as hard work was in the market economy (one's ability to cooperate and collaborate as opposed to just working hard). The amassing of social capital will become as valued as the accumulation of market capital. Attachment to community and the search for transcendence and meaning comes to define the measure of one's material wealth. All the [open organization principles][13] we write about will be exponentially more important in the future.
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The IoT will free human beings from the capitalist market economy to pursue nonmaterial shared interests on the collaborative commons. Many — but not all — of our basic material needs will be met for nearly free in a near zero marginal cost society. It will be abundance over scarcity.
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### Prosumer and the entry of the smart economy
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Rifkin writes that as capitalist economies step aside in some global commodities, in the collaborative commons, sellers and buyers will give way to prosumers, property rights will make room for open source sharing, ownership will be less important than access, markets will be superseded by networks, and the marginal cost of supplying information, generating energy, manufacturing products, and teaching students will become nearly zero.
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### Internet of energy is on the way
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Financing of the IoT will not come from wealthy capitalists and corporate shareholders, but from hundreds of millions of consumers and taxpayers. No one owns the internet. It is only in operation because a set of agreed-upon protocols were established that allows computer networks to communicate with each other. It is a virtual public square for all who pay for a connection to use it. Next comes distributed renewable energies that will be distributed in the same way. Supported by feed-in tariffs and other fund-raising methods, governments will pay for the initial research, but after that fixed investment, the public will be able to connect and use it freely. Once underway, governmental centralized operations will move to distributed ownership. The [Electric Power Research Institute][14] (EPRI), is studying how to build a national energy internet over the next 20 years.
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This is not just supplying electricity. Every device in every building will be equipped with sensors and software that connect to the IoT, feeding real-time information on electricity use to both the on-site prosumer and the rest of the network. The entire network will know how much electricity is being used by every appliance at any moment — thermostats, washing machines, dishwashers, televisions, hair dryers, toasters, ovens, and refrigerators.
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This is not happening in the future, but now. It is not just being considered but being done now. [Intwine Energy][15] can supply the above process now. The issue is getting it into the greater global population. A group of young [social entrepreneurs][16] are now using social media to mobilize their peers to create, operate and use the energy internet.
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### A new world of abundance beyond our needs
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Rifkin thinks society has to start envisioning an entire different living environment. Imagine a world in which you can just give away things you once had to pay for, or had to sell at a profit. No one charges us for each internet connected phone call. He believes these give-away goods need not be covered by governments, like telecommunication, roads, bridges, public schools or hospitals. They need not be considered totally private property to be sold and bought, either. These goods have to be supplied in communities with rules, responsibilities and joint benefits (information, energy, local production, and online education). Not governed by the markets or governments, but by networked commons because of the [tragedy of the commons][17]. It governs and enforces distributed, peer-to-peer, laterally scaled economic activities.
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Rifkin feels the Collaborative Commons as a governing body is extremely important. This is where local (project) leadership comes in. The goals, processes, tasks and responsibilities must be successfully executed, after they have been decided and agreed on. Furthermore, "social capital" is a major factor. It must be widely introduced and deepened in quality. Community exchange, interaction and contribution is far more important than selling to distant capital markets. If that is the case, our [open organization leadership][18] will be extremely important.
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### The public square versus private ownership
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"The public square at — least before the Internet, is where we communicate, socialize, revel in each other's company, establish communal bonds, and create social capital and trust. These are all indispensable elements for a nurturing community." Historically, Japanese villages were built like that to survive natural, economic and political disasters like earthquakes and typhoons. They put common interests over self-interests This is what the open organization principle of community is all about.
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The right to be included, to have access to one another, which is the right to participate together, is a fundamental right of all. Private property, the right to enclose, own, and exclude is merely a qualified deviation from the norm. For some reason, having massive private property rights have gained in importance in more recent modern times. This will all be reversed in the years ahead according to Rifkin.
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Rifkin writes that the world will move to these commons:
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1. Public square commons
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2. Land commons
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3. Virtual commons
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4. Knowledge commons (languages, cultures, human knowledge and wisdom)
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5. Energy Commons
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6. Electromagnetic spectrum commons
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7. Ocean commons
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8. Fresh water commons
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9. Atmosphere commons
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10. Biosphere commons.
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The past 200 years of capitalism, the enclosed, privatized, and commodification of the market must be put under review. How would they be most effective in a transparent, non-hierarchical and collaborative culture? It comes down to two views, the capitalist (I own it. It is mine, and you can't use it) and the collaborationist (This is for everyone to use, and there are rules and guidelines to use it, so everyone can get their fair share). Today's cooperatives are good at this, like the [International Co-operative Alliance (ICA)][19]. Cooperatives have to generate motivation for the greater community good, and that motivation must be greater than any profit motive. That is their challenge but this not new, as one in seven people on the earth are in some kind of cooperative now.
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As I've presented in this article, the IoT will become our working and living environment. Also, energy costs are projected to go to near zero. With those changes, community collaboration and cooperation will become ever more important over hard work. In the last part of this series I will look at Collaborative Commons in logistics and other economic activity.
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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via: https://opensource.com/open-organization/22/5/near-zero-marginal-cost-societies-and-impact-why-we-work
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作者：[Ron McFarland][a]
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选题：[lkxed][b]
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译者：[译者ID](https://github.com/译者ID)
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校对：[校对者ID](https://github.com/校对者ID)
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本文由 [LCTT](https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject) 原创编译，[Linux中国](https://linux.cn/) 荣誉推出
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[a]: https://opensource.com/users/ron-mcfarland
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[b]: https://github.com/lkxed
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[1]: https://opensource.com/sites/default/files/lead-images/BUSINESS_networks.png
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[2]: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18594514-the-zero-marginal-cost-society
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[3]: https://us.sunpower.com
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[4]: https://www.energywatchgroup.org
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[5]: https://www.forbes.com/sites/ricoheurope/2020/02/06/moving-from-the-information-age-to-the-collaboration-age
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[6]: http://www.zythepsary.com/author/admin
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[7]: https://ch.linkedin.com/in/heatherleson
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[8]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3D_printing
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[9]: https://reprap.org/wiki/RepRap
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[10]: https://www.thingiverse.com
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[11]: https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/a9645/urbee-2-the-3d-prinhttps://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/a9645/urbee-2-the-3d-printed-car-that-will-drive-across-the-country-16119485
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[12]: https://phys.org/news/2013-02-kor-ecologic-urbee-car-d.html
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[13]: https://theopenorganization.org/definition/open-organization-definition/
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[14]: https://www.epri.com
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[15]: https://www.intwineconnect.com
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[16]: https://www.cleanweb.co
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[17]: https://blogs.pugetsound.edu/econ/2018/03/09/comedy-of-the-commons
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[18]: https://github.com/open-organization/open-org-leaders-manual/raw/master/second-edition/open_org_leaders_manual_2_3.pdf
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[19]: https://www.ica.coop/en
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@ -0,0 +1,188 @@
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[#]: subject: "Near zero marginal cost societies and the impact on why we work"
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[#]: via: "https://opensource.com/open-organization/22/5/near-zero-marginal-cost-societies-and-impact-why-we-work"
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[#]: author: "Ron McFarland https://opensource.com/users/ron-mcfarland"
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[#]: collector: "lkxed"
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[#]: translator: "CanYellow"
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[#]: reviewer: " "
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[#]: publisher: " "
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[#]: url: " "
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近乎零边际成本的社会及其对我们为何工作的影响
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======
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随者我们的工作与生活环境已经物联网化，能源消耗将会接近于零而社区协作将成为关键。
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![一张人际关系网][1]
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图源：Opensource.com
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我拜读了杰里米·里夫金(LCTT 译注：Jeremy Rifkin)的书籍《[零边际成本社会——一个物联网、合作共赢的新经济时代][2]》(LCTT 译注：此为该书中文译名，中文出版信息可以在[此处][T1]获取)，该书主要讨论开放组织原则，尤其是社区创建。里夫金还在书中讨论了绿色能源时代的未来以及能源在物流中的使用。本文是三篇系列文章中的第二篇。在我先前的文章中，我讨论了协作共享(LCTT 译注：Collaborative Commons)。本文，我将讨论它对能源生产与供给的影响。
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里夫金相信，接下来的25年间，家庭供暖、电气设备、电力行业、车辆驾驶、整体经济运行等各行各业中的大部分都将采用近乎免费的在地太阳能、风能与地热能。这一过程已经在个体领域以及微型电站领域开始了，估计会在2-8年后收回投资。
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管理几乎免费的绿色能源的最优组织架构是什么样的呢？此外，通过智能化的通讯与能源系统，组织可以在世界各地发展自己的业务，并且通过洲际能源互联网共享能源。最重要的是，可以仅以目前全球制造业巨头提供的价格的一点儿零头生产和销售它们的产品.
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### 物联网已近
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如里夫金所言，物联网(IoT)能够连接每一台设备、每一项业务、每一幢住处、每一辆交通工具，将所有这些连接在一张智能网络中，这一网络不仅包括目前所见的通讯网络，还包括未来的能源网络以及物流网络。所有这些网络将集成在单一的运行系统中。能源利用将被完全监控。里夫金相信10年内大量的智能化的能源测量设备将投入使用(2025年前)。所有这些投资将至少能够降低当前工业系统中10%的浪费。
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由于设备集成的传感器与制动器的成本的降低，所有这些都将成为可能。射频识别(RFID)芯片的价格在2012-2013年间已经下降了40%。微机电系统(MEMS)，包括陀螺仪、加速度计、压力传感器等，的价格也在过去的5年间降低了80-90%(直至2015年本书出版时)。
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这将会使单个个体的个人设备设备连接数量提升到大约1000。这种连接正是现在的年轻人所钟爱的，完全融入一个虚拟的全球公共广场中来分享他们的一切。他们在透明、协作与包容中茁壮成长，并注意保持适当的隐私水平。因此，可以想见，协作共享正当其时。
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### 指数曲线增长
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问题：你是想一次性拿到100,0000美元还是想拿能够在接下来的30天内每一天都翻倍的1美元(30天后，1美元将变成5,3687,0912美元，是100,0000美元的500倍还多)？31天后，这笔钱将超过十亿美元。指数增长速度惊人。里夫金认为这正是成本如此快速降低的原因。这将导致整个化石能源工业投资都变成搁浅资产。鉴于这一境况将是协作共享的理想场景，我们应当现在就开始计划使用所有的开放组织原则进行协作共享。
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### 未来，免费的能源网络
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|
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当前，互联网上充满了可供学习的免费信息，只要你尝试寻找它。下一步将是能源免费(太阳能、风能、地热能、生物质能、水能)。里夫金认为，在初始投资之后(研究、开发与部署)，免费能源的单位成本将快速降低。信息互联网与近乎零成本的可再生性也会引入能源互联网，为家庭、办公场所以及厂区等提供电力。理想情况下，能源可以提供给建筑并部分以氢能的形式存储，分布在绿色电网中，并提供接入式的零损耗的输运。可再生能源的发展建立了一个由五大支柱组成的结构，这有助于让数以亿计的人口在物联网时代的世界中以接近零边际成本的方式共享能源。
|
||||
|
||||
### 太阳能
|
||||
|
||||
如果你开始收集来自太阳的能量，能量收集设施仅仅需要获取到达地球的太阳能量的0.1%，就可以提供六倍于目前全球能量消耗的能量。
|
||||
|
||||
[太阳动力公司(LCTT 译注：SunPower Corporation)][3] 开展以上业务。它支持家庭能源生产者。太阳能光伏电池的价格随着工业产能的翻番大概就降低20%。太阳能板的数量正在上升，而单片太阳能板的捕获效率则也在上升。将来也期待会开发出更薄的太阳能板，如纸般纤薄的太阳能片。最终将来将会出现太阳能工厂以及太阳能窗户。
|
||||
|
||||
生成超出的能量后，必须将其售出、存储在电池中亦或者是用于制氢。这一技术已经引入市场，并将在不久的将来占据市场的主导地位。仅仅依靠这一技术，零边际成本的电力已经触手可及。
|
||||
|
||||
### 风能生产
|
||||
|
||||
自上世纪90年代始，风能生产经历了指数形增长，目前(截止2015年)已经接近化石能源与核能的发电水平。随着风力发电机的生产、安装与维护成本的不断降低，风电容量大约每两年半翻一番。因此随着太阳能与风能资源的增加，政府将不再需要以关税资助风电与太阳能发电行业。
|
||||
|
||||
[能源观察组(LCTT 译注：Energy Watch Group)][4]正在跟踪这一趋势。根据里夫金的说法，地热能、生物质能、波浪与潮汐能将可能在下一个十年里进入他们各自指数增长过程中的陡峭上升阶段。他相信这些都将在21世纪上半叶发生。如果到2028年，新能源装机容量可以翻八番或者更多，能源生产中的80%都将来自可再生资源。
|
||||
|
||||
### 协作时代不久即将到来
|
||||
|
||||
基于上述能源的发展，社会工作环境与居住环境正在改变。摘引[协作时代(LCTT 译注：collaborative age)][5]的说法：
|
||||
|
||||
> 这一方式可以保证人们之间无障碍的进行任务协作。人员与机器可以无缝协作。而自动化，也即机器之间的协作，也会成为关键。正确地应用这些要素的行业将能够扩大员工的满足感，并吸引最好的人材。由于日常任务的自动化以及更小的办公空间需求，这将降低运营成本。[Laura Hilliger][6] 以及 [Heather Leson][7]写下了关注社会影响的组织是如何利用新时代的优势的。
|
||||
|
||||
### 做出转变
|
||||
|
||||
这听起来很好，但商业如何才能从信息时代过渡到合作时代？一个途径将是通过3D打印技术实现的去中心化生产[增材制造(LCTT 译注：additive manufacturing)][8]，不需要去除材料，造成浪费。
|
||||
|
||||
不是商品输送，未来很多商品都可以实现本地制造，只需要传输相应的软件。这可以完全避免物流成本，而且可以使得产品制造可以在靠近终端市场的地区在地完成。就此而言，新开发的熔融塑料、熔融金属以及其他的打印耗材将可以用于制造。这赋予了3D打印机制造成千上万产品的能力(比如珠宝、飞机零部件以及假肢)。
|
||||
|
||||
### 中心化制造与分布式制造，里夫金项目的到来
|
||||
|
||||
里夫金相信：通过物联网经济以及几乎零边际成本的全球互联网站点，低商业成本是可能的。
|
||||
|
||||
1. 在地的3D生产过程几乎不需要人力参与(基于“信息制造”(LCTT 译注：infofacture)而不是工业制造)。人们收发在地制造所需的信息，就像日常下载音乐一样，你接收的仅仅是代码而已。
|
||||
|
||||
2. 3D打印所需的代码是开源的，人们可以学习并改进设计，在更广泛的程度上成为一名自助生产者(不存在知识产权保护的藩篱)。这在接下来的几十年里将带来指数式的增长，以更低的价格以及近乎为零的边际成本提供更复杂的产品。
|
||||
|
||||
3. 减材制造过程(目前的制造过程)存在很大的浪费，在每一道工序中都产生了大量的废料。(仅有1/10的材料是所需要的。这些材料可以在地化地在任何地方从基本粒子合成出来，比如再生玻璃，纤维产品，陶瓷以及不锈钢等。复合纤维混凝土挤出后可以自由成型，其强度足以构建承重墙[有望在20年内实现]。)
|
||||
|
||||
4. 3D 打印工艺需要更少的移动部件，且几乎不需要备件。因此，昂贵的重组与产线转换所占用的时间延迟所带来的影响将会更加有限。
|
||||
|
||||
5. 材料将会更加耐用，更加可回收利用，且污染更小。
|
||||
|
||||
6. 由于其低物流成本与低能耗的特点，基于物联网的在地化分布式生产将以指数速率在世界范围内传播。
|
||||
|
||||
里夫金引用了 [Etsy ][https://www.etsy.com/] 作为这种模式的一个例子。你可以找到你感兴趣的事物，并利用他们的网络在当地制造它。他们出售相应的代码，而你可以在当地供应这些产品。
|
||||
|
||||
里夫金认为未来，中小规模的 3D 公司可以通过信息制造生产更复杂的产品，它们因而可能在本地的技术园区内形成合适供应链规模的产业集群(另一种形式的社区开发)。下面是目前的案例：
|
||||
|
||||
1. [RepRap][9]: 一种能够制造自身以及自身所有零件的 3D 打印制造设备。
|
||||
2. [Thingiverse][10]: 最大的 3D 打印社区。基于 GPL 与 CC 许可共享 3D 打印模型。
|
||||
3. Fab Lab: 开源的制造业点对点学习网站。它已经引入到发展中国家当地的偏远社区。
|
||||
4. 3D 打印的汽车([Urbee vehicle][11])已经在测试了。
|
||||
5. [KOR EcoLogic][12] 拥有一辆城市电动汽车。
|
||||
|
||||
### 创客的行动准则
|
||||
|
||||
下面是这些生态系统所遵循的原则：
|
||||
|
||||
1. 它们使用开源共享软件。
|
||||
2. 它们推崇合作学习文化。
|
||||
3. 它们相信可以构建一个自给自足的社区。
|
||||
4. 它们致力于可持续生产实践。
|
||||
|
||||
### 工作与协作共享的未来
|
||||
|
||||
当技术取代了工人，资本投入也就取代了劳动投入。2007年相比20年前，商业公司使用的计算机与计算机软件的数量已经增长了6倍，单位时间内雇用劳动所使用的资本量也翻了一番。机器人劳动力的应用正在上升。中国、印度、墨西哥以及其他的新兴经济体已经认识到世界上最廉价的劳动力也没有像可以取代它们的信息技术、机器人技术以及人工智能技术那样廉价、高效和具有生产力。
|
||||
|
||||
回到里夫金的观点，第一次工业革命结束了奴隶制与农奴制，第二次工业革命造成了农业劳动与手工业劳动的极大萎缩。里夫金认为第三次工业革命将导致制造业、服务业中的大规模雇用劳动力的降低，也会导致大部分知识部门中雇用的专业劳动力的减少。
|
||||
|
||||
里夫金相信充沛的零边际成本的经济将会改变我们对经济运行过程的认知。他认为传统的资方与雇方、卖方与买方的范式将会崩溃。消费者将开始自行制造产品(同时也为有限的其他人)，从而消除消费者之间的区别。在边际成本逐渐降低到零的共享协作中，这样既是生产者又是消费者的产消者将很快能生产、消费以及互相分享他们自己的商品与服务，从而带来超越传统的资本主义市场模式的组织未来的经济生活的全新方式。
|
||||
|
||||
里夫金预测未来，更加重要地是共享协作，并且在市场经济中这将会和努力工作一样重要(一个人的能力在于合作能力，而不仅仅是努力工作)。社交资本的积累将和市场资本的积累同等重要。社区的依赖以及对超越与价值的探索将成为对个人的物质财富的衡量标准。我们以上列明的[开放组织原则][13]在未来将指数化的变得愈发重要。
|
||||
|
||||
物联网将把人类从资本主义市场经济中解放出来，让人们在共享协作中追求非物质的共享利益。在近乎零边际成本的社会中，虽然不是所有的基础物质需求，但是我们的大量基础物质需求几乎都将可以零成本满足。这个未来社会将会超乎想象的物质丰富。
|
||||
|
||||
### 产消者与智能社会的到来
|
||||
|
||||
里夫金在文中认为，随着资本主义经济在一些全球性的大宗货物上的没落，在共享协作的社会中，买卖双方将让位于产消者，所有权将让位于开源共享，使用权将比所有权更加重要，市场将由网络所取代，信息供应、能源生产、产品生产、学生教育的边际成本将几乎为零。
|
||||
|
||||
### 能源互联网已经在路上
|
||||
|
||||
物联网金融不是来自于富有的资本家或者企业股东，而是来自于成千上万的消费者与纳税人。互联网不为任何人独有。互联网之所以能够运行，仅仅是因为建立了一套商定的协议允许网络中的计算机可以互相通信。这对于每一个已经支付了网络使用费用的人来说就像是一个虚拟的公共广场。接下来的分布式可再生能源也会像类似的方式分布。在入网收费以及其他融资方式下，政府将承担初始的研究费用，但是在这一固定投资之后，大众将能够免费接入并使用它。一旦发生，政府中心化的运营方式将会转向分布式所有。[美国电力科学研究院][14]正在研究如何在接下来的20年间建立一个国家能源互联网。
|
||||
|
||||
这不仅仅是电力供应那样简单。每一幢建筑中的每一台设备都将装备连接到物联网的传感器与软件，提供产消者以及网络上其他人的实时的用电信息。这一能源互联网将能够感知每一台设备任一时刻的用电数据——空调、洗衣机、洗碗机、电视、吹风机、烤箱、烤炉以及冰箱等等。
|
||||
|
||||
这不是将会到来的情景，而是正在发生。它不仅仅是正在考虑当中，而且是正在践行当中。[Intwine Energy][15]已经可以提供上述过程。一批年轻的[社会企业家][16]现在正在使用社交媒体来鼓励他们的同龄人创造、运营和使用这个能源互联网。
|
||||
|
||||
### 物资充沛超出我们需求的新世界
|
||||
|
||||
里夫金认为我们必须开始展望一个完全不同的新世界。想像一下在这个世界里，你可以放弃那些你曾经必须付费购买的或者是必须以一定利润出售的东西。没有人会向我们收取互联网电话费用。他相信这些放弃的商品需要无法像电信、公路、桥梁、公立学校与公立医院那样由政府提供，也不能完全当作私人财产来买卖。这些商品必须由以一定规则、责任以及共同利益(信息、能源、在地生产与在线教育)凝聚的社区来供应。这些商品的交换不应由市场或者政府主导，而应基于[共有地悲剧][17]的原因，由网络中的共同体负责，它管理和执行分布式、点对点、横向扩展的经济活动。
|
||||
|
||||
里夫金感到共享协作作为管理主体是极其重要的。这正是在地(项目)发挥领导力之处。目标、过程、任务以及责任都必须在同意以及确认后成功执行。进一步而言，“社会资本”也是主要因素，必须要广泛引进并深化质量。社区内部的交换、交互以及贡献远比向遥远的资本市场进军更加重要。如果情况如此，那么我们的[开组织领导力][18]将会十分重要。
|
||||
|
||||
### 公共广场与私有权
|
||||
|
||||
“至少在互联网之前，公共广场是我们交流，社交，陶醉于彼此陪伴，建立公共纽带以及创造社会资本与信任的地方。”历史上，日本的乡村就是这样建立的，以应对像台风、地震这样的自然、经济或者政治灾难。他们将公共利益置于个人利益之上。这正是社区的开源组织原则的全部。
|
||||
|
||||
被接纳的权利，互相接触的权利，也就是共同参与的权利是所有参与者的基础权利。私有财产，即圈占、拥有和排除的权利，只是对标准规范的一种有限制的偏离。由于一些原因，在当前的现代社会中获取大量的私有财产的权利是重要的，里夫金认为在接下来的时间这将会得到反转。
|
||||
|
||||
里夫金在书中写道，世界将在下列领域公共化。
|
||||
|
||||
1. 公共广场公共化
|
||||
2. 土地公共化
|
||||
3. 虚拟公共化
|
||||
4. 知识公共化(语言、文化、人类的知识与智慧)
|
||||
5. 能源公共化
|
||||
6. 电磁频谱公共化
|
||||
7. 海洋公共化
|
||||
8. 淡水公共化
|
||||
9. 大气公共化
|
||||
10. 生物圈公共化
|
||||
|
||||
过去200年的资本主义，市场的封闭化、私有化和商品化必须审视。 在透明、无等级和协作的文化中，他们如何才能最有效？ 归结为两种观点，资本主义（我拥有，属于我的，你不能用）和协作主义（任何人可用，有相应的使用规则与使用指南，因而任何人有享有公平份额）。 今天的合作社在这方面很擅长，比如[国际合作社联盟（ICA）][19]。 合作社必须为更大的社区利益生成动力，而且这种动力必须大于任何利润动机。 这是他们面临的挑战，但这并不新鲜，因为现在地球上七分之一的人都在某种合作社中。
|
||||
|
||||
正如我在本文中所展示的，物联网将成为我们的工作和生活环境。 此外，能源成本预计将接近于零。 随着这些变化，社区协作与合作将变得比努力工作更加重要。 在本系列的最后一部分中，我将探讨物流和其他经济活动中的协作共享。
|
||||
|
||||
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
via: https://opensource.com/open-organization/22/5/near-zero-marginal-cost-societies-and-impact-why-we-work
|
||||
|
||||
作者：[Ron McFarland][a]
|
||||
选题：[lkxed][b]
|
||||
译者：[CanYellow](https://github.com/CanYellow)
|
||||
校对：[校对者ID](https://github.com/校对者ID)
|
||||
|
||||
本文由 [LCTT](https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject) 原创编译，[Linux中国](https://linux.cn/) 荣誉推出
|
||||
|
||||
[a]: https://opensource.com/users/ron-mcfarland
|
||||
[b]: https://github.com/lkxed
|
||||
[1]: https://opensource.com/sites/default/files/lead-images/BUSINESS_networks.png
|
||||
[2]: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18594514-the-zero-marginal-cost-society
|
||||
[3]: https://us.sunpower.com
|
||||
[4]: https://www.energywatchgroup.org
|
||||
[5]: https://www.forbes.com/sites/ricoheurope/2020/02/06/moving-from-the-information-age-to-the-collaboration-age
|
||||
[6]: http://www.zythepsary.com/author/admin
|
||||
[7]: https://ch.linkedin.com/in/heatherleson
|
||||
[8]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3D_printing
|
||||
[9]: https://reprap.org/wiki/RepRap
|
||||
[10]: https://www.thingiverse.com
|
||||
[11]: https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/a9645/urbee-2-the-3d-prinhttps://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/a9645/urbee-2-the-3d-printed-car-that-will-drive-across-the-country-16119485
|
||||
[12]: https://phys.org/news/2013-02-kor-ecologic-urbee-car-d.html
|
||||
[13]: https://theopenorganization.org/definition/open-organization-definition/
|
||||
[14]: https://www.epri.com
|
||||
[15]: https://www.intwineconnect.com
|
||||
[16]: https://www.cleanweb.co
|
||||
[17]: https://blogs.pugetsound.edu/econ/2018/03/09/comedy-of-the-commons
|
||||
[18]: https://github.com/open-organization/open-org-leaders-manual/raw/master/second-edition/open_org_leaders_manual_2_3.pdf
|
||||
[19]: https://www.ica.coop/en
|
||||
|
||||
[T1]: https://www.bkpcn.com/Book/Bk_OneBook.aspx?id=2014000629
|
||||
Loading…
Reference in New Issue
Block a user