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Are We Witnessing the Decline of Ubuntu?
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========================================
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History is written years after the events it describes. But when the history of free software finally is written, I am increasingly convinced that this last year will be noted as the start of the decline of Ubuntu.
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At first, the idea might seem ridiculous or spiteful. You can still find Ubuntu enthusiasts who exclaim over every move the distribution makes, and journalists still report founder Mark Shuttleworth's every word uncritically.
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Community manager Jono Bacon is working hard to develop a community of app developers for the Ubuntu Touch mobile operating system, and occasionally Ubuntu's commercial arm Canonical announces prestige projects such as working with the Chinese government to develop a [national Chinese operating system][1], or being chosen to deliver the [Steam][2] gaming platform to Linux.
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Nor can you deduce too much from the fact that Google trend shows a sharp decline in searches for "[Ubuntu][3]." Except for Android and Mageia, the same can be said of other [major distributions][4]. It is true, though, that none of the other distros have declined as sharply as Ubuntu, which is at less than half its height in October 2007, at a low that it has not been at since June 2006.
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All the same, the suspicion remains. Ubuntu and Canonical have isolated themselves from the free software community that Shuttleworth once hoped to lead. In the last year, the community has signaled repeatedly that at least parts of it feel disempowered.
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Worst of all, in the last year, initiative after initiative has failed, and profitability apparently continues to elude Canonical. All these seem like indicators of organizations that are starting into a tailspin that will be difficult to correct, assuming they are correctable at all.
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###Semi-Splendid Isolation
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The last year is a marked contrast to the first years of Ubuntu. In 2005-2007, Ubuntu was the latest and greatest hope for the Linux desktop, and criticism was limited largely to those who felt that Debian was not given enough credit or distrusted the motives of an eccentric millionaire.
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In those early years, Ubuntu did many things to improve usability on the desktop. Probably the most noticeable was the installed support for multiple languages and keyboard locale switching that are now standard in all major distributions.
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Gradually, however, Ubuntu and Canonical began to isolate themselves from the mainstream of the free software community. Shuttleworth's proposals that projects coordinate their releases and emphasize usability were largely ignored. Impatient with the speed of development in GNOME -- and, perhaps, seen as an upstart in the GNOME community -- Shuttleworth began the development of the Unity interface, a design project that intrigued him so much that he stepped down as Canonical CEO to oversee it.
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Unity and all its details quickly became the major focus of new Ubuntu releases. If the package versions were sometimes less up to date as they once were, few noticed as Canonical imposed change after change, effectively giving the design team a veto over the Ubuntu community.
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Yet for all the development effort lavished on Unity, the result was an interface that, for all its eye candy, was better suited for mobile devices than workstations or laptops. According to Distrowatch, only [11 distributions][4] default to Unity, although [79][5] are listed as derived from Ubuntu in general. Nor have other major distributions rushed to make Unity available, much less promote it.
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The same is true of [Upstart][6], Ubuntu's replacement for the init daemon, and more recently, [Mir][7], Ubuntu's replacement for Wayland, which other projects see as the upcoming replacement for the X Window System.
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While both remain free-licensed, in practice both Upstart and Mir are controlled by Canonical, mainly through a [contributor's agreement][8] which assigns all rights to the company.
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This control is perhaps one of the reasons why Intel recently [announced][9] that it would not be supporting Mir. In the last four years, Ubuntu and Canonical have gone from welcome members of the free software community to being perceived as mavericks who obey the letter of free-licenses while undermining their spirit. Few, apparently, are prepared to do them any favors.
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###Placing Its Own House Out of Order
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The more Canonical has isolated itself from the rest of the community, the more it has also attempted to control the Ubuntu community.
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This effort is widely interpreted as the result of increasingly determined efforts to make Canonical profitable. Although Canonical is quick to make support and partnership announcements, [these announcements][10] are always lacking any mention of a monetary value -- an omission that, after nine years of running the business, would seem unthinkable if there was any good news to report. But, whatever the reason, Canonical has increasingly imposed its decisions on the community of Ubuntu volunteers without consulting them.
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Many of these decisions have been trivial in themselves. They range from decisions not to support a completely free-licensed version of Ubuntu or a KDE-based version to the repositioning of title bar icons and the introduction of the [HUD][11] menu replacement.
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However, as in many disputes, the issues involved seem less important than the relationships involved. Unlike Canonical, Ubuntu on a daily basis runs much like any free software project, with discussion and consultation the expected norm. The introduction of a hierarchy with Canonical employees at the top and often wielding a veto power would be likely to cause friction even if done politely -- which, often, it has not been. Instead of welcoming debate, Canonical has been far more apt to urge people to stifle it in the name of making Ubuntu a success.
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Matters came to a head in February 2013, with long-time Ubuntu contributors publicly questioning whether they had any role and many considering quitting (although in practice, only one seems to have).
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These first signs of discontent were quieted largely through the diplomatic efforts of Jono Bacon, only to flare up a couple of months later over the [removal of a community link][11] from the Ubuntu home page.
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Again, Bacon managed to smooth things over, and -- so far as an outsider can tell -- the community has been quiet in the months since. However, the longstanding community grievances are unlikely to have disappeared altogether, for the simple reason that Canonical continues to ignore much of the Ubuntu community. A new outburst seems only a matter of time.
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###Lost without a Compass
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Whether Canonical ever believed that the Ubuntu distribution could be profitable is unknown. Certainly, over a dozen earlier efforts to monetize distributions should have warned the company how unlikely the possibility was. But the years spent polishing Ubuntu suggest that Canonical hopes -- or hoped -- to do the impossible. Or perhaps Canonical simply sees a quality distribution as a pre-requisite to grander goals.
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Either way, spending so much effort on Unity seems to have been a distraction. To this day, Canonical appears to lack a business plan that offers any reasonable chance of profitability.
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To some undocumented extent, efforts like online storage, a music store, or corporate ads in the dash may be defraying the costs of developing Ubuntu. However, if together they make Ubuntu profitable, no one is mentioning the fact. Attempts to cut corners by holding developer's meetings online rather than in person suggest a company that is finding ways to cut corners, not one making a profit.
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Just as important, these efforts can create other problems. In particular, the ads on the dash lead to concerns about privacy and to being called spyware by [Richard Stallman][12]. The ads were also a major prompt for community unrest.
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Yet Canonical has taken over a year to [address the privacy concerns][13] -- and, even then, the lack of details means that it is asking users to trust it.
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Other sidelines, like [Ubuntu TV][14], have yet to materialize. Currently, Ubuntu's main strategy seems to be convergence on multiple form factors, but the advisability of trying to break into a saturated market seems dubious. The Ubuntu Touch interface is scheduled to be released in October with the 13.10 environment, but if any phone manufacturers are shipping products with it pre-installed, then Canonical is saving the announcements for the release date.
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Even worse was the [Ubuntu Edge][15] fundraiser, an attempt to crowdfund a cutting edge boutique phone. Had it worked, then Canonical might have established a small niche in the marketplace.
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However, in the end, only forty percent of its $32 million goal was reached. Canonical tried to put a good face on the results, mainly because of the publicity the crowdfunding campaigned produced. But since the result now mean that Canonical has a reputation for failure among potential business partners, the rationale is hard to accept. The failure of Ubuntu Edge has left Canonical's business plans more indefinite and more unlikely than ever.
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###Waiting for the Next Act
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All this is not to say that either Canonical and Ubuntu are about to disappear overnight. Any decline is just beginning, not at the point of no return. The introduction of new faces, or even determined internal reform could still turn Canonical and Ubuntu around. Perhaps listening to the Ubuntu community would be useful as well.
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Still, the problem remains that, after nine years, Canonical and Ubuntu have yet to succeed. Major contributors to the Linux desktop in their early years, they have not even helped themselves with recent innovations, let alone free software in general. Increasingly, the general impression is one of confusion and desperation, which in itself can contribute to the decline.
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Even without reform, Ubuntu and Canonical may continue to glide on their previous reputations, although the Ubuntu Edge campaign suggests that may be less possible as many imagine. But increasingly, Canonical and Ubuntu seem to have been slipping from the position of leadership they had in their earliest years.
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Whether they can reverse their decline or merely accelerate it by panicky half-measures is uncertain, but watching the possibilities play out should make for an interesting next couple of years.
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via: http://www.datamation.com/open-source/are-we-witnessing-the-decline-of-ubuntu-1.html
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本文由 [LCTT][] 原创翻译，[Linux中国][] 荣誉推出
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译者：[Mr小眼儿][] 校对：[校对者ID][]
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[LCTT]:https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject
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[Linux中国]:http://linux.cn/portal.php
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[Mr小眼儿]:http://linux.cn/space/14801
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[校对者ID]:http://linux.cn/space/校对者ID
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[1]:http://www.canonical.com/content/canonical-and-chinese-standards-body-announce-ubuntu-collaboration
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[2]:http://games.slashdot.org/story/13/02/14/2318247/valve-officially-launches-steam-for-linux
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[3]:https://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=Ubuntu#q=Ubuntu%2C%20Canonical&cmpt=q
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[4]:http://distrowatch.com/search.php?ostype=All&category=All&origin=All&basedon=All¬basedon=None&desktop=Unity&architecture=All&status=Active
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[5]:http://distrowatch.com/search.php?ostype=All&category=All&origin=All&basedon=Ubuntu¬basedon=None&desktop=All&architecture=All&status=Active
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[6]:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upstart
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[7]:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir_%28software%29
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[8]:http://www.canonical.com/contributors
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[9]:http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2013/09/intel-rejection-of-ubuntus-mir-patch-forces-canonical-to-go-own-way/
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[10]:http://www.canonical.com/about-canonical/news-and-events
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[11]:https://wiki.ubuntu.com/Unity/HUD
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[12]:https://www.fsf.org/blogs/rms/ubuntu-spyware-what-to-do
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[13]:http://iloveubuntu.net/smart-scopes-anonymize-images-landing-users-dash-privacy-oriented
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[14]:http://www.ubuntu.com/tv
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[15]:http://www.datamation.com/open-source/ubuntu-edge-canonicals-big-gamble.html
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我们正在见证Ubuntu的没落？
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========================================
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真正的历史总在事情发生多年以后才会写就。但是，当将来某天自由软件的历史最终定稿的时候，我始终相信，今年，将作为Ubuntu没落的初始之年而被载入史册。
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起初，这个想法可能看起来荒谬可笑或者不怀好意。因为你仍能看到Ubuntu的狂热支持者们在为其每一个发行版的改进鼓掌叫好呐喊助威；记者们也还在谄媚地报道Ubuntu创始人Mark Shuttleworth所说的每一句话；
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社区负责人Jono Bacon正在为Ubuntu Touch移动操作系统开发一个新的应用开发者社区；最近，Ubuntu的商业部门Canonical还公布了一些重大项目，例如与中国政府合作，为其开发[国家级的中文操作系统][1]，以及被Linux基金会选中负责实现[Steam][2]游戏平台等等。
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然而，[Ubuntu在Google上搜索量][3]的锐减趋势也许能说明一些问题。除了Android和Mageia，其他Linux[主流发行版][4]情况虽然与Ubuntu类似，都有所下降，但事实是，即便这样，却没有哪个发行版像Ubuntu一样下降得如此厉害 —— 搜索量还不到2007年10月的一半，为2006年六月以来的最低值。
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一直以来，质疑都在持续。Shuttleworth曾经希望能引领自由软件，但现在Ubuntu和Canonical已经将他们自己孤立于自由软件社区之外。就在去年，社区已经多次暗示，它至少部分感到权利被剥夺。
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最糟糕的的是，去年，Ubuntu发起的倡议一再被否决，Canonical盈利能力也出现了明显的持续下降。所有这些现象，看起来好像其决策层已经陷入一片难以挽回的混乱，当然，如果这些真的可以挽回的话。
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###半途而废
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和去年形成鲜明对比的是Ubuntu的早几年。2005年到2007年，三年间，Ubuntu成为了Linux桌面世界最新最伟大的希望之星，连评论界都鲜见关于Ubuntu的负面文章，在此之前，评论界一直在声讨Debian注资不足或是质疑某个古怪暴发户投资的动机。
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在那些风光的年月里，Ubuntu确实做出了很多努力，大大推进了Linux桌面系统的易用性与普遍性。也许最值得铭记的就是它对多语言环境和键盘区域切换（键盘多输入法？）的支持，现在这已成为各大主流发行版的标准。
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但好景不长，渐渐地，Ubuntu和Canonical开始将自己孤立于主流自由软件社区之外。Shuttleworth的那些美好初衷，诸如项目协作、强调易用性等等，都被严重忽略了。GNOME开发也开始变得急功近利 —— GNOME社区也许认为这是一种进步 —— Shuttleworth甘愿放弃Canonical CEO的职位，也要参与主导开发让他疯狂着迷的Unity。
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由此，Unity以及与之相关的一切迅速成为了新版Ubuntu发布的关注焦点。由于Canonical不断要求完善的压力（很少有人注意到这是跳票的真正原因），有时软件包的开发像之前一样无法赶上发布进度，这样就使得开发团队总是无法得到Ubuntu社区的肯定。
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在这种情况下，开发团队被迫将所有的精力都放在了Unity上，结果就是，华而不实的Unity终于能更好地匹配在移动设备，而不是工作站或笔记本电脑上了。经Distrowatch的统计，尽管有多达[75个发行版][5]是由Ubuntu衍生而来，但其中只有[11个发行版][4]默认采用了Unity。Ubuntu家族尚且如此，其他的主流发行版就更不会采用Unity了，更不要说推动它的发展。
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同样的情况还发生在[Upstart][6]上，Ubuntu使用它代替了init服务；最近，Ubuntu还用[Mir][7]代替了Wayland，而被替换下场的Wayland，正是其他发行版一直看好的X系统的最佳替代者。
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Ubuntu为什么要这么做？Upstart和Mir虽然都保留着自由软件许可，但其实它们都在Canonical的实际控制之下，Canonical主要通过[贡献者协议][8]将所有权利都划归到了公司手里。
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这种控制也许就是Intel最近[宣布][9]它将不再支持Mir的原因。在过去4年里，Ubuntu和Canonical已经从最受自由软件社区欢迎的成员变成了表面遵守自由软件许可暗地里却背道而驰的牛犊子。现在，这个圈子里已经没有人再愿意帮它任何忙了。
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###后院起火
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Canonical将自己孤立得越发遥远，它却越想控制整个Ubuntu社区。
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Canonical之所以这样，也许可以解释为这是越来越坚定想努力盈利的结果。尽管Canonical一直在忙于宣布获得了新的合作与支持，但是[这些声明][10]中却总是缺少任何提及合作资金数额的词句。要说这是遗漏了？经过长达九年的商业化运行，很难想象他们会漏掉任何可以报道的好消息。但是，无论原因是什么，Canonical已经越来越多地不经任何商讨，就将它的决定强加给志愿者社区。
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其中的许多决定都是很琐碎的。范围从决定不再支持完全自由许可的Ubuntu版本或者一个基于KDE的版本到标题栏图标的重新定位，以及替换[HUD][11]菜单的介绍。
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其实，在争论中，解决问题并不是最重要的，重要的是解决问题时人们之间的关系。与Canonical不同，Ubuntu每天的运行看起来就像是任何预期中规范的自由软件项目一样，有讨论有商议。而Canonical呢？据说，Canonical公司中的高级雇员经常滥用否决权，即便是礼貌的否定，都可能会导致摩擦 —— 更何况，这种否定还常常是粗鲁的。Canonical已经不再欢迎开诚布公的讨论，而是借着“为了让Ubuntu成功”的名义越来越倾向于扼杀人们的不同意见。
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矛盾积蓄久了终会爆发。经过长时间的公开质问，Ubuntu社区贡献者们的地位仍得不到肯定，2013年2月，许多人开始考虑退出社区（事实上，貌似只有一个人付诸行动）
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表达不满的首次发声很快就被Jono Bacon老练的公关手段平息下来，但也仅仅过了几个月，由于Ubuntu首页上[通往社区的链接被移除][11]，矛盾再次爆发。
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Bacon再一次平息了事态，在局外人看来，这几个月社区似乎重新归于平静。但是长期积累的不满不可能完全消失，理由很简单，Canonical一直都在无视Ubuntu社区。矛盾再次爆发看起来只是时间问题。
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###迷失方向
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Canonical是否曾经相信Ubuntu发行版能够盈利，这我们不得而知。当然，之前无数的教训已经警告了Canonical，为赚钱而生的发行版成功的几率有多渺茫。但是多年来在Ubuntu上付出的努力似乎表明Canonical希望——或者曾经希望——能将不可能变为可能。又或者，也许Canonical只是简单地将一个优秀发行版看作是其宏伟目标的踏脚石。
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一方面，如今看来，在Unity上付出如此多的努力已经是一步错棋。直到今天，Canonical似乎仍然缺乏一个商业计划为其带来任何可以盈利的合理机会。
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至于那些周边产品，诸如在线存储、音乐商店、或者Dash中的合作广告，这些努力可能有助于弥补开发Ubuntu所需的花销，但要说这些东西就能帮助Ubuntu盈利，没人会张这个嘴。而用在线会议代替实际会议，这只能说明一家公司正在寻找削减开支的手段，而不是盈利的方法。
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更重要的，这些“努力”会导致新的问题。其中格外要提到的是，Dash中的广告已经导致了对个人隐私的担忧，甚至被[Richard Stallman][12]称之为间谍软件。这些广告还加重了社区的不满情绪。
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Canonical用了一年时间来[解决个人隐私问题][13]，但即使这样，缺乏足够的细节说明它只是想让用户们相信它。
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其他方面，像[Ubuntu TV][14]，仍然没有成形。当然，Ubuntu的主战略看起来正向多样化多元素靠拢，但是尝试闯入一个饱和市场，其合理性仍然值得怀疑。Ubuntu Touch计划于10月份同13.10一起发布，但是如果有手机制造商要搭载预装产品，Canonical还将推迟发布日期。
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更糟的是[Ubuntu Edge][15]投资人计划，该计划打算通过众筹基金打造一款时尚前卫的经典手机，如果能够成功，Canonical就可以在市场中为其建立一个小生态圈。
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然而，最终3200万美元的筹资目标只达到了四成，Canonical对此只能“强颜欢笑”，因为参与众筹的投资者们也确实为产品卖力的宣传了。但是这个结果意味着Canonical在潜在的商业伙伴眼中背上了失败者的名声，现实就是如此残酷。Ubuntu Edge的失败给Canonical的商业计划留下的是更多的不确定性，希望愈加渺茫。
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###拭目以待
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以上我所写的这些并不是说一夜之间Canonical和Ubuntu就会消失。任何“没落”都才刚刚开始，并不是无法挽回。管理层引进新面孔，或者执行内部改革，都有可能让Canonical和Ubuntu重新振作。也许倾听Ubuntu社区的声音也是一个好的选择。
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如果问题依旧，即使再过一个9年，Canonical和Ubuntu也不会成功。Linux桌面那些早年的主要贡献者，他们甚至都没有对自己的代码有所创新，更不要提一般的自由软件了。长此以往，要么困惑要么绝望，都将会加速Ubuntu的没落。
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如果不加以改革，Ubuntu和Canonical也许能改变之前失败者的印象，尽管Ubuntu Edge项目表明这种可能性并不大。但是，渐渐地，Canonical和Ubuntu已经开始失去他们多年来拥有的领袖地位。
|
||||
|
||||
到底是扭转颓势，还是依靠不疼不痒的措施加速没落，这些都是未知数。接下来的这几年会很有趣，充满变数，让我们拭目以待！
|
||||
|
||||
via: http://www.datamation.com/open-source/are-we-witnessing-the-decline-of-ubuntu-1.html
|
||||
|
||||
本文由 [LCTT][] 原创翻译，[Linux中国][] 荣誉推出
|
||||
|
||||
译者：[Mr小眼儿][] 校对：[校对者ID][]
|
||||
|
||||
[LCTT]:https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject
|
||||
[Linux中国]:http://linux.cn/portal.php
|
||||
[Mr小眼儿]:http://github/tinyeyeser
|
||||
[校对者ID]:http://linux.cn/space/校对者ID
|
||||
|
||||
[1]:http://www.canonical.com/content/canonical-and-chinese-standards-body-announce-ubuntu-collaboration
|
||||
[2]:http://games.slashdot.org/story/13/02/14/2318247/valve-officially-launches-steam-for-linux
|
||||
[3]:https://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=Ubuntu#q=Ubuntu%2C%20Canonical&cmpt=q
|
||||
[4]:http://distrowatch.com/search.php?ostype=All&category=All&origin=All&basedon=All¬basedon=None&desktop=Unity&architecture=All&status=Active
|
||||
[5]:http://distrowatch.com/search.php?ostype=All&category=All&origin=All&basedon=Ubuntu¬basedon=None&desktop=All&architecture=All&status=Active
|
||||
[6]:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upstart
|
||||
[7]:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir_%28software%29
|
||||
[8]:http://www.canonical.com/contributors
|
||||
[9]:http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2013/09/intel-rejection-of-ubuntus-mir-patch-forces-canonical-to-go-own-way/
|
||||
[10]:http://www.canonical.com/about-canonical/news-and-events
|
||||
[11]:https://wiki.ubuntu.com/Unity/HUD
|
||||
[12]:https://www.fsf.org/blogs/rms/ubuntu-spyware-what-to-do
|
||||
[13]:http://iloveubuntu.net/smart-scopes-anonymize-images-landing-users-dash-privacy-oriented
|
||||
[14]:http://www.ubuntu.com/tv
|
||||
[15]:http://www.datamation.com/open-source/ubuntu-edge-canonicals-big-gamble.html
|
||||
Loading…
Reference in New Issue
Block a user